As the chaotic trade deadline season continues, let’s take a deep dive into yet another Mets
trade option: Zac Gallen of the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Mets have reportedly checked in on right-handed starting pitchers Dylan Cease and Sandy Alcantara, while being linked to others, including Joe Ryan, Merrill Kelly, and Gallen, who was named a potential trade target by SNY’s Andy Martino on Monday afternoon.Just two years ago, Gallen was considered one of the top starting pitchers in the sport. In 2022,
he put up a 2.54 ERA en route to a fifth-place Cy Young finish. In 2023, he struck out 220 batters in 210.0 IP, earning him a third-place Cy Young finish and even a lone MVP vote. In 2024, he took a small step back and missed a month due to a hamstring injury, still finishing with a solid 3.65 ERA. But this season, his numbers have cratered. In 127.0 IP across 22 starts, he currently holds a 5.60 ERA with a career-low 8.6 K/9, an N.L.-worst 23 home runs allowed, and an MLB-worst 79 earned runs allowed.
While Gallen’s abysmal stat line might make him seem like an unattractive acquisition, a closer look reveals that glimpses of the old Gallen remain alive and well amidst his struggles. If David Stearns bought into Gallen’s track record, and Jeremy Hefner’s staff was able to rejuvenate the 29-year-old (who will turn 30 on Sunday) at breakneck pace, it’s not a stretch to say Gallen could be the ace of the Mets’ playoff staff.
Gallen hasn’t seen a significant drop in fastball velocity, as his four-seam currently averages 93.3 mph—right around his career average. He hasn’t seen a significant drop in movement, as Gallen is actually averaging more vertical and horizontal break on both his changeup and curveball than he did last year. He also hasn’t seen a significant change in his ability to generate swings and misses, with a 25.6% whiff rate that sits just below last season’s 26.0% clip.
There is, however, a major shift in Gallen’s metrics which sticks out like a sore thumb: in 2024, Gallen’s knuckle curve was worth a run value of 15, while in 2025, that number has plummeted to -4. His curve is still effective when he locates it, as hitters are batting just .210 against the pitch in the “Shadow” of the strike zone (as designated by Statcast). But Gallen has left more of those pitches up, throwing 20.7% of his curves in the “Heart” of the zone compared to just 12.4% last year. Below are batters’ numbers against Zac Gallen’s knuckle-curve in the heart of the strike zone year-to-year.
2024: .200, 0 HR, 17.5 Whiff%, 31% Hard-Hit Rate
2025: .577, 3 HR, 6.7 Whiff%, 75% Hard-Hit Rate
The results are striking. Gallen has been missing with his knuckle-curves more often, and hitters have simply been hammering them when he does. A similar trend can be seen with Gallen’s cutter, which he’s thrown in the heart of the zone 31.4% of the time this season compared to 10.4% last year, yielding a .400 batting average and two homers.
Given his stark drop-off from an All-Star to below replacement level, it’s unclear what kind of competition the Mets would face in the market if they’re serious about snagging Gallen as a two-month rental. The Diamondbacks also may not be committed to selling off all their expiring contracts, according to a report by Buster Olney last Friday, though the D-Backs continues to slip further down the National League standings and now sit 7.0 games out of a Wild Card spot. If Arizona does decide to throw in the towel on 2025, the Mets could also target Gallen’s teammate Merrill Kelly, according to a report by Olney during ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball broadcast.
Gallen had two of his best starts of the season against the Mets in early May, throwing six innings of one-run ball at Citi Field followed by seven innings of one-run ball at Chase Field five days later. In Gallen’s most recent start, he was outmatched by Pirates superstar Paul Skenes, getting tagged for four runs in six innings at Pittsburgh. Gallen is lined up to start next on Saturday—after the trade deadline passes at 6 PM on Thursday.
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