With the trade deadline less than three days away, it’s time to take a deeper dive into individual players the Mets have been linked to. After reports that the Mets checked in on right-handed starters Dylan Cease and Sandy Alcantara, Buster Olney said during last night’s ESPN broadcast that the team is looking to add a top-of-the-rotation starter such as Joe Ryan or the topic of today’s profile: Merrill Kelly.
At 36 years old, Kelly currently holds a 3.22 ERA over 128.2 IP with the Diamondbacks this
season. Excluding one disastrous, torpedo-bat-traumatizing outing against the Yankees in early April, that mark would be down to 2.66. Kelly isn’t a flashy pitcher, with an 8.5 K/9 rate. Instead, his strength lies in his cutter and changeup combo, pitches which average over 3.0 inches of vertical break and have yielded .133 and .178 batting averages this season, respectively. Kelly isn’t a household name, having no All-Star appearances or awards (or even a lone Cy Young vote) on his major league resume. But Kelly has quietly been one of the game’s most reliable starters for years, tossing 580.1 IP with a 3.40 ERA over the past four seasons. Only six pitchers in that span have thrown as many innings with a better ERA: Zack Wheeler, Framber Valdez, Corbin Burnes, Logan Webb, Luis Castillo, and Logan Gilbert.
Kelly’s consistency and ability to rack up innings make him an attractive fit for a Mets team which has been in dire need of length from their starting pitching. Since June 13, the Mets have gotten just 167.0 innings from their starters, which ranks second-fewest in MLB behind the Dodgers. During that span, the Mets have gotten just five starts of at least 6.0 innings, and all of them have come from David Peterson. Sean Manaea should join Peterson on that list as he builds back up following his return from injury, but the Mets will nonetheless be managing the workload of Clay Holmes, who pushes his career-high in innings pitched with every outing.
Kelly, meanwhile, has thrown at least 6.0 innings in seven of his past ten starts. Since the start of May, he’s tallied 96.0 innings, trailing only Tarik Skubal, Robbie Ray, and Garrett Crochet. In addition to getting a top-of-the-rotation arm, adding Kelly would allow the Mets the flexibility to move Holmes back to the bullpen, or potentially switch to a six-man rotation and push their existing starters deeper into games with increased rest. Unlike other rotation trade targets such as Alcantara and Mitch Keller, Kelly would be a cheaper rental option given his contract expires at the end of the season.
The Diamondbacks traded first baseman Josh Naylor on Thursday, seemingly signaling their status as sellers at this year’s deadline. A report from Olney the following day said the Diamondbacks aren’t committed to “go all-in on selling,” but if they did, Kelly would certainly be their most valuable trade candidate behind third baseman Eugenio Suarez. Arizona has slowly slipped out of playoff contention, now sitting 6.0 games out of a Wild Card spot after going 1-5 (and mustering just eight runs) in their past six games.
If Kelly does get moved before the deadline hits at 6 PM on July 31, then he has already made his last start with the Diamondbacks. The Mets have just one series left to assess their options, playing the first of a three-game set against San Diego on Monday at 9:40 PM.
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