The Josh Naylor era has come to an end. Thoughts on the return?
Preston: The return was pretty much right in line with expectations. A pair of top-20 prospects in a good Mariners’ system. There’s a very real argument to be made that Izzi is the best pitching prospect in the system, and he probably has the highest realistic ceiling of any prospect not named Patrick Forbes. Garcia fills an immediate need. Yes, the team needs starting pitching more than it needs bullpen help, but the chances of getting
an MLB-ready starting pitcher in a trade is something unlikely to happen, and if it does, it will be for Suarez.
Spencer: I think it’s a pretty good return. I adore Naylor, but realistically he is a placeholder 1B option with 2 months of control. Some team will be lucky to sign him this offseason. For that, we got Garcia whom I think will be fine but probably already is what he is; a volatile reliever who can be lights out at times and often wild. We also got Izzi who is also likely a reliever long term, but is exciting to imagine as a starter bolstering the team as soon as 2027. For a rental bat, that’s pretty impressive. Whether or not these new arms work out, this is a solid return. Hazen made the smart decision to begin selling and in the early going has done a good job.
Makakilo: I am excited about the return. They rank between the second and fifth best pitching prospects in the Diamondbacks farm system (FanGraphs FV 40+ puts each in the top 5 pitchers, MLB.com ranked Izzi and Garcia as the second and fourth best pitching prospects).
Wesley I like the return. Izzi’s made real progress this year cutting down on walks while increasing the strikeouts significantly. I like him more than Garcia and I think he’s close to breaking out as a prospect.
Sam: Prospects are by no means my specialty, but I guess I like that they’re trading for pitchers, recognizing the obvious need on this team.
James: The return is a solid one and Mike Hazen did well to extract as much value from the trade of Naylor as he could. The cost to acquire Naylor was steep to begin with. THe fact that Hazen may have recouped close to that full value is actually impressive. Garcia is a reliever who looks poised to step in for A.J. Puk as a hard-throwing lefty from the bullpen. If he can ever get a slightly better handle on his command, he has legit potential to be a high leverage arm in the bullpen. If he is as developed as he is going to get already, then they still have a serviceable lefty with velocity, who should be able to be an effective middle reliever, especially against lefty-heavy lineups. Izzi is an interesting get. I’m still not sure he’ll stick as a starter, but the organization appears ready to give him every chance to do so, and that’s a good thing. While he doesn’t have Slade Cecconi’s potential ceiling, he does have the ceiling of a #¾ starter, which is where Cecconi was when he was traded. Given the timeline for the next most likely push to the playoffs, having Izzi on a timeline that has his debut in 2027-28 helps AZ have more control over their arms than they do right now as this window is slamming shut.
1AZfan1: Can we really call Naylor’s tenure here an ‘era’? Love the return for the simple fact that we got potentially 10 seasons worth of cost-controlled pitching in exchange for 2 months of a defensively deficient first baseman.
Ben: Yeah, this was a solid return for a player who was himself flipped for a project pitcher like Slade Cecconi. I like that the return includes someone who will help this year already as well as someone whose value is still very projectable. And Garcia looked solid in his team debut this afternoon by pitching to contact and moving past his mistake of walking the leadoff hitter.
In a vacuum (ie, not considering any other trades) will not having a decent quality 1B hurt the team or do you feel that English et al will be able to cover the gap?
Preston: I like English because he’s the type of player I like to follow (ie., not a star) but while his numbers at Reno are quite good, there’s points in his metrics that don’t stack up well at the big league level. Chief among those are his tendency to chase breaking balls outside of the zone (leading to a poor walk rate) and partially as a result of prioritizing contact with two strikes, a lower average exit velocity than would be liked. This is not a Pavin Smith situation like last year, or a Tim Tawa situation like earlier this year. I don’t see him being an average bat, and you need an above-average bat at first base. I think it’s right to give English a good run until Smith is back, but the position seemingly belongs to Pavin Smith when healthy, and I don’t see English being good enough to change that, while Tawa has more value as a utility player.
Spencer: I think English is a great story. But I don’t think he’s the next Walker/Peralta. I’d imagine Pavin gets the majority of opportunities once healthy. How that all plays with the offense and defense, I’m not sure. Honestly it may just be a wash. But if he’s platooned straight up with someone, maybe that’s a very small net win at the position?
Makakilo: He will cover the gap for two reasons:
- His fielding at first may be an improvement. This season, Diamondbacks defense at first base was below average (negative 5 team DRS ranked in a tie for 25th-27th), with Tawa the only average (0 OAA, 1 DRS) fielding at first base.
- This season, English has a .956 OPS in AAA Reno. Even discounting for Reno, his OPS shows promise.
Sam: Again, not much of an expert on until-recently minor leaguers, but I guess I like the fact that he’s right-handed? Balances out some of this roster overall; could platoon with Pavin once he’s healthy. I’m not really sure if I’m ready to roll into 2026 with that as the solution, but we have the rest of the season to figure that out.
James: As others have mentioned, Tristan English makes a nice story. English is not, however, the solution at first base. I’m fine with Mike Hazen and Co. running with experiments over at first for the rest of the season. But I would hope that, by the time October rolls around, the team knows what they do and do not have regarding that position moving forward. I wouldn’t be shocked if ADC gets some reps, just to see how he looks. Pavin Smith has found a lifeline it would seem. There is also a fair chance that Groover, despite improving at third, could still supplant everyone and take over at first, clearing a path for one of Lawlar or Troy at third. Given that the team is now in full-on sell mode, I expect the front office to use the rest of the season to explore some of the potential futures. That’s more important to me than any fallout from having a suboptimal team on the field.
1AZfan1: 100% agree with James here. Now that we’re officially selling, I care more about finding out what we have for 2026’s roster than how much we can hurt our spot in next year’s draft order.
Ben: I’ve long been doubtful about Pavin Smith and while his April performance this year - carrying over his second-half performance from last year - certainly diminished that doubt, I’m not convinced he can be an everyday first baseman. From May 1st through going on the IL, Pavin posted a mediocre .221/.318/.356 slash line. It’s still possible he could form one half of a platoon there with English, Del Castillo, or someone else, but his handedness splits are so dramatic as to be eye-popping. This year, he’s only had 23 PAs against lefties and holds a woeful .176/.391/.176 slash line in that tiny sample size, but it’s understandable to have that level of protection when your career against southpaws consists of a decidedly middling .223/.297/.302 slash line. As for English, it’s too early to tell what he might be at the major league level, but a Smith/English platoon as the primary plan in 2026 would give me serious pause for a team in the very middle of its contention window.
Is there a single trade that you feel has to get done by the deadline?
Preston: The value of Eugenio Suarez is never going to be higher than it is right now. The return is certainly going to be far north of a compensation draft pick, particularly since Suarez might struggle to get $50 million on the free agent market because of age. He’s the only player that definitely needs to be moved, but deals should be made with teams that are willing to meet the price for anyone.
I do have to comment on the Ketel Marte rumors that certain personalities have put out there. His name was mentioned in a sentence giving examples of players that it would take an extravagant package to obtain, including Corbin Carroll and Geraldo Perdomo. A certain person seized on the Marte comment because that’s the name that will get the most clicks. And it’s true that the price for Marte is probably lower than any of the other names Hazen mentioned in that sentence, because of his age and injury history, but Hazen’s messaging was clear throughout: he’s looking at the near future, so any package offered for Marte would have to help the team in 2026 and beyond more than Marte. He’s not going to be dealt. And even if you did take Hazen’s words as shopping Marte, Hazen coupled that with saying that deals like that never get done at the deadline, but might form the basis of a conversation in the winter. In other words, Marte isn’t going anywhere this deadline.
Spencer: Suarez. Kelly. Gallen. If any of them are still on the team in a week, something went wrong. We all want to believe our players will earn $50M on the open market, but I think seeing Gallen sign 2/$30-$40M is realistic. Kelly 3/$45M. Suarez is the one I’m most confident in netting a valuable QO draft pick but he’s also the one with a trade value floor higher than said pick. My preference is to target upside over security, but with both Kelly and Suarez as fungible assets, I think we can/should split the difference. Target a true ceiling return for Suarez and for Kelly aim for an MLB arm with 2+ years of control after 2025 plus a lottery ticket. Gallen probably brings back something disappointing.
Makakilo: No trade ‘has to get done.’ Whether a trade improves the future of the Diamondbacks depends on what other teams offer. Only trades that improve the future need to be done. Looking at the specific players, it appears that there will be several offers for Eugenio Suarez that would improve the future.
Wesley: I don’t think they have to trade anyone and it would be foolish to go into the deadline with that attitude, especially with Suarez and Kelly. The math is very simple, find value thats greater than what you’t get from a potential compensation pick. Keeping those two and offering a qualifying offer is a win-win regardless of the outcome though. However, Preston is right on this one in that neither’s trade value is ever going to be higher than it is right now.
Sam: They should get the best value for Suarez, but it’s hard to imagine a world where no team is willing to pay more for Suarez than he’d be worth if he turns down a QO. Heck, Naylor’s return already exceeded that, and Suarez is definitely going to be worth more.
James: If no further trades happen the rest of the way, it will be a lost opportunity. The team simply must continue to bolster the roster depth to help put the team into a stronger position moving forward. Quality depth might have saved Arizona’s 2025 season. But, just one or two injuries was enough to quickly derail things. Then things just kept getting worse.That said, they need to make the right moves. None of the moves being made now should be about a salary dump. No Robbie Ray/Andrew Chafin moves.
I do think the team needs to move Suarez for the best package they can get in return. With the return the team received for Naylor, it is difficult to see HAzen not being able to extract value greater than that of the draft pick compensation for offering Suarez a QO. Even with the Yankees making the move for McMahon, there should still be plenty of interest in Suarez. Moving Suarez actually helps with the “Rebuild” both by bringing in controllable talent and by opening up third for Lawlar to finally get some reps at the MLB level again. It becomes his roster spot to lose and he’ll have a (mostly) pressure-free ~50 games to finally find his footing at the highest level so he is prepared to hit the ground running in 2026. It also gives Arizona those same ~50 games to evaluate if Lawlar can stick at third, needs to move to second, or to left. Or, worst case scenario, he plays his way into a utility role and the team has to turn to a new solution. This is the time to learn that though. SO yes, the team should really move Suarez to really get the development carousel turning.
Opinions are varied on Gallen. I still feel it is a no-brainer to give him a QO if he is not traded. It won’t be without risk, but it is a partial-year risk, not a long-term one. However, if they can get a prospect that borders close to (does not need to clearly exceed) the value of a second round pick for Gallen, they should take it. It eliminates the “risk” of Gallen in the offseason, regardless of which side of the argument one falls on. It also means Arizona likely has a player who is either close to the Majors or is already pitching in the Majors with 2-3 years of control left (but not in the rotation). This player will cost the team close to league minimum, meaning there will be significant savings moving forward to invest in the roster this winter, when Arizona must be active in the free agent market just to plug the numerous holes on the roster.
1AZfan1: Not getting anything for Geno if he leaves at the end of the season would be a true missed opportunity for two reasons. First, I don’t think we’ve ever had the hottest available bat at the deadline before. He is a joy to watch and it will be heartbreaking if we see him giving out hugs in the dugout midgame, but the return we could get will likely help this team so much more over the next 5+ years than he will. Second, Moving Geno would finally give Lawlar a runway that he hasn’t had yet. Lawlar’s got talent in there, he needs more than a sip of coffee at the big leagues and this is the perfect opportunity for him to showcase it.
Ben: As heartbreaking as it is, it would be borderline irresponsible for Suarez to still be on the team on August 1st. His value is sky high at the moment and the number of teams desperately fighting for a playoff spot combined with the dearth of impact bats of his caliber makes it extremely likely that the price will get matched by someone. I trust Hazen to be able to thread the needle on what that price is.
Gallen and Kelly are both more difficult cases to decipher. The price of starting pitching has inflated so much that the Athletics (a notoriously penny-pinching franchise) handed Luis Severino a two-year contract with a player option for $45 million - despite having a 3.91 ERA and 1.24 WHIP last season. And if you look at those two head-to-head, there’s little comparison on Gallen’s bonafides. I think it’s pretty easy to envision a team handing Gallen a $15 million/year contract for three years or so with the hope that a change of scenery returns him to the Cy Young contender he was just two or three years ago. I doubt he’ll get the kind of megacontract that Spotrac predicts, but I think their comparable pitchers and market value analysis are both extremely accurate. Unfortunately, Kelly is much less likely to hit the $50 million threshold to return anything and might not be eligible for a qualifying offer anyway so if there’s a reasonable offer on the table for him, I think Hazen should take it.
What’s one MLB stadium you haven’t been to yet but really want to?
Preston: This is a tough one. I could go historical and say Fenway. I’ve been to PNC Park, but not for a game, and I’d kind of like to see it for a game. Realistically, though, I’d go to any park.
Spencer: I’ve been luckier than most and seen many parks as the DBacks travel near me. Sadly though, I’ve yet to make it to Petco and I’ve heard amazing things. In the last month I’ve had a good friend and a professional contact get to visit separately; both offered rave reviews as non-baseball fans.
Makakilo: The stadium that comes to mind is the A’s future stadium in Las Vegas. The features of a new stadium would be interesting. Things I would look at follow:
- I read they will have the largest Jumbotron in MLB.
- What is the lighting in the context that Las Vegas is the brightest city on earth?
- Is there a cooling system? In my experience Las Vegas is very hot and does not cool down at sundown.
- Do they have souvenirs with sequins?
- Are live plants integrated into the stadium?
- Wouldn’t it be cool if they had a zipline experience from the stadium to a nearby hotel?
Wesley: I have only been to Chase Field. Excluding Tampa and Sacramento, I’d really like to go to the other 27 that I haven’t gone to.
Sam: I’ll say Wrigley. I’ve been to Fenway and it’s indeed a one-of-a-kind experience – I’d really recommend not staying in your seat and just walking around the stadium at some point in the game; it’s quite small. Wrigley is the other ancient gem, but I’ve hardly spent much time in Chicago in general.
James: I’ve been to quite a few parks. Then there are those that I would go to so that I can check it off my list, but I have no real burning desire to go (here’s looking at you Miami - and others). That probably leaves me with PNC Park in Pittsburgh. Sadly, unless I find a way to fund a trip solely for the purpose of seeing a game at the stadium, it seems unlikely I will ever make it there. I’m more likely to have work pay to send me to England than I am to be sent to Pittsburgh and I have no family or friends there. But it does look beautiful on the screen.
1AZfan1: My bucket list top 3 to visit are Wrigley, Fenway, and Camden Yards in that order. If I was told I could only go to 3 more ballparks, those would be my 3 without hesitation. We have tickets to see the D-backs play at Petco in September so I will knock that one off the list, but it was not ahead of any of the 3 I mentioned above. Like others have said, PNC would be an awesome place to visit and would probably fall at #4 or #5 on my list if I really sat down and thought about it. Chase is one of my least favorite ballparks. It just doesn’t seem to have a soul like some of the others I’ve been to. I even liked the Marlins new stadium more than Chase (It’s really not bad, James. I promise!). Of the ballparks I have been to, I highly recommend Dodger Stadium. Get tickets to an evening game and sit in the upper deck so you can enjoy the colors of the San Gabriel Mountains change as the sun sets.
Ben: I know it might be sacrilege to say, but I haven’t been to Chavez Ravine and would very much like to go at some point. I’ve also never been to T-Mobile Park in Seattle and that would also be on my shortlist. In my life, I’ve been very fortunate to have been to many of the ballparks with my parents (excluding those that hold little to no appeal to me like Tampa or Miami) and have added to that list as an adult.
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