The injury riddled Astros’ lineup ran into a wall during the A’s series. A 4 game sweep against you is never good. And the team’s playoff odds continue to deteriorate.
Like always, I will track the current Fangraphs’ playoff odds for the Astros. Since the Mariners and Rangers are back in the picture, I also will show their odds.
Division Odds / Bye Odds / Playoff Odds
Astros 57.0% / 39.0% / 88.8%
Mariners 26.9% / 15.8% / 73.9%
Rangers 15.9% / 8.6% / 57.1%
This is really a glass half-full or half-empty
situation. If you are a half full person, the Astros continue to hold near certain playoff odds and better than 50-50 odds of winning the division. You would much rather be in the Astros’ position than the Mariners or Rangers. On the other hand, the half empty view is that the Astros’ division odds have declined from the 70% range to the mid-50’s range. And the odds of winning a Bye in the playoffs have declined from better than 50% to a meager 39%. Attaining the bye status is fairly important as the Astros learned last season.
The current replacement player lineup over performed for awhile. But the good thing is that those wins—over performing or not—are banked. It’s why the Astros now are in a more favorable position than the Mariners and Rangers.
Hopefully some combination of returning injured players and deadline acquired players can right the Astros’ ship going forward.
As we think about the trade daadline...
With the trade deadline approaching in a couple of days, the Astros have too few tradeable resources and too many needs. I discussed some of the options in my last article.
But let me take a different approach to the conversation. Maybe the strategy will need to change.
As discussed in the previous article, batting options could involved Suarez, Castro, O’Hearn, Sanchez, Mullins or even Taubman. However, will one batter move the needle enough? The Astros may be better off adding two batters to the offense, even if one or both options are very low level (read: low trading cost) hitting options. If you’re lucky maybe you pick up one of the listed players above, plus another low cost bat.
Example of the low cost hitters include guys like the Pirates Tommy Pham and the Twins Koby Clemens. Pham is a RH bat but hits better against RH pitchers. Clemens is platoon type LH bat. Pham can play RF and LF and perhaps 2b if needed. Clemens plays LF, 2b, 1b, and 3b, if necessary.
Clemens, who was openly available after he was DFA’s by the Phillies, has performed nicely as a platoon bat with a 115 OPS+. He is not good against LHPs, but he has hit for 122 OPS+ against RHBs. He has very good power, with 12 HRs in less than 200 PA. And one might hope that Clemens will be energized by playing in his hometown.
Pham had a bad start to the season for the Pirates. But he frequently is traded at mid-season and seems to help teams after the trade deadline. Pham has a 165 OPS+ in the last 28 days and a 242 OPS+ in the last 7 days. So, he is kind of a hot hand right now.
Presumably, these are guys who might cost the Astros some lottery pick prospects.
As for pitching, yes I would like to see a starting pitcher acquired. But I’m not sure the Astros will have the ammunition to get that done, particularly if they have already traded for a bat. But an alternative strategy might be to acquire a RH leverage reliever. My thinking is that returning injured starters—whether Javier or Garcia—will be unable to pitch deeply into games. In that situation, fortifying the bullpen may be the second best course of action.
For example, Seranthony Dominquez is one of the top rental relievers available. The Orioles’ high leverage reliever throws 98 gas. His walk rate is somewhat elevated but his K rate is good. I would prefer acquiring starting pitcher Chariie Morton, but if he is too expensive, maybe the Orioles’ reliever is an alternative. If the Rays throw in the towel on the season, their closer, Pete Fairbanks would be a rental trade option. Fairbanks throws 97 and keeps an ERA, x-ERA, and FIP in the 2-ish range. I’m just making suggestions—there are a number of relief pitchers who might be available.
OK, those are my thoughts for the day.
More from crawfishboxes.com:
- Verlander Regression? Astros Trending: Week in Review, June 28-July4.
- Astros Prospect Report: July 5th, 2018
- Game Recap: Never Settle, Never Quit. Springer, Gurriel Get the Clutch Hit.
- Houston Astros Sprinting through Stretch of Weaker Competition
- Astros Trade: James Hoyt to Cleveland, Tommy DeJuneas to Houston
- Astros Prospect Report: July 4th, 2018
- The Astros Have the Best Bullpen in Baseball.
