With less than a week remaining before the mid-season trade deadline, we are getting close to decision time. Due to the massive number of injuries this year, the Astros have more need for reinforcements than at prior mid-season deadlines. But the Astros also have fewer good options and available resources than previous seasons—with obstacles like a depleted farm system and the approaching Competitive Balance Tax threshold.
The latest comment from GM Dana Brown indicates that he is prioritizing acquistion
of a bat. They are willing to take either an outfield or infield bat, depending on what is available While a LH bat is wanted, the Astros appear to be most interested in obtaining offense of any kind. Beyond that, Brown doesn’t rule out acquiring a starting pitcher if the opportunity arises. Brown also says that the Astros “prefer” not to trade players off their ML roster. Finally he appears to dodge the question as to whether owner Jim Crane would be willing to exceed the CBT threshold for a second season—saying simply that Crane has shown his willingness to do what’s necessary to support a winning team.
I don’t have the answers to the difficult decisions facing the Astros. But I will make a few observations.
I think it is imperative that the Astros protect their top young players from trade. The Astros simply don’t have enough in the farm system to spare the small group of top level prospects. I would put Cam Smith, Jacob Melton, and Brice Matthews in this category. Brown may well agree with this view, but he will be under increasing pressure to trade a top prospect.
Eugenio Suarez.
Suarez is a quality third baseman and likely the biggest bat who will be traded at the deadline. Some rumors have surfaced that the Astros are interested in his bat. (Who wouldn’t be?) But I have considerable reservations about this option.
First, because so many teams (including the Mariners) are interested in Suarez’s power bat, he is bound to be expensive. And those other teams have deeper farm systems. The trading cost might include one of the three top prospects I mentioned. And the question has to be asked, “Is that worth a rental bat?
Second, Suarez has some regression risk over the final third of the season. His actual stats all exceed his “expected” stats for x-SLG, xwOBA, and x-BA. The Fangraphs article Midseason 3b Assessment: Will it [Suarez’s big numbers] continue? There are some indicators that things may slow down over the course of the second half. For example, he’s putting the ball in the air over 50% of the time, and his HR/FB ratio is at 27.1%. League average HR/FB is 11.5% which tells us either he’s hitting the ball so hard that nothing can stop it from flying out, or he’s caught the wind a few times. But article goes on to suggest that Suarez still holds considerable offensive value even with regression. Indeed his periperhals are similar to the top sluggers in the game (like Judge, Raleigh, and Schwarber).
My feeling is that the Astros may lack the ammunition to trade for him, and if they did trade for him, we would be dismayed at the prospects who have to be sent that direction In addition, the prorated amount of his $15 M salary probably pierces the CBT threshold, which creates another problem to be addressed.
Willi Castro and Ryan O’Hearn
The switch hitting Twins’ OF and LH hitting Orioles 1b/DH are likely the next most pursued bats The salaries likely will fit under the CBT. Castro’s x-SLG (.404) and xwOBA (.331) are both lower than his actual SLG and wOBA, perhaps indicating some risk of regression. O’Hearn has shown dominating on-base and slugging ability, but he is purely a platoon bat (he is unusable against LHP) and may have to sit out when lefties pitch. Also, given that the Astros have a 1b, O’Hearn will take the DH role, which could be problematic if Alvarez returns from injury. Despite those drawbacks, Fangraphs says, “a guy with O’Hearn’s OBP skills, with a strikeout rate of 16.4%, could remake an ailing lineup.”
Given that these two hitters are back up options for teams who lose out on Suarez, I expect the trading cost to be relatively high. Again, the question is whether the trading cost is worth a rental hitter.
Other Hitters
From an affordability standpoint, the Astros are more likely to go diving in the deep end, hoping to find a gem who might rebound with the Astros. TCB has already published article with pros and cons for thee hitters; so I won’t repeat it here. If the Rockies decide to sell, 3b Ryan McMahon and OF Mickey Moniak could be attractive options at the right price. Cedric Mullins has some warning signs (x-stats vs. actual stats) but he might be worth the risk if the cost is low. If the Astros want to take a chance on a batter with a team controlled multi-year contract, the Pirates Brian Reynolds could be an option. Although the Marlins’ Jesus Sanchez (OF) may be somewhat more expensive in trading terms, he is an attractive hitter with some team control. Really, any of these “lesser” names could be a reasonable option if the Astros don’t have to give up top tier prospects.
Starting Pitchers
With a number of injured starting pitchers potentially returning, Brown seemingly views the addition of a starting pitcher as secondary to hitting. I previously wrote a “buy low” starting pitcher article here. Looking at those options now, three teams were targeted (Red Sox, Reds, and Royals) who now appear to be buyers at the deadline. The remaining two players are the Pirates’ Mitch Keller and the Nats’ Mike Siroka. The latter pitcher would be a rental. Beyond those names, I would add the Orioles’ Charlle Morton (he has come on strong over the last two months) and the A’s Luis Severino. Both have big game playoff experience. Morton would be a rental and might like a trade to his old team. Severino is more of a reach, given his salary ($22.3 M AAV plus an option after the 2026 season). But if the Astros could figure out a way to deal with the CBT impact, he would also provide some protection in the rotation for next season.
Relievers
I think it’s possible that the Astros could find some demand for one of their high performing LH relief pitcher (like Okert, King, or Sousa). It’s also possible that the Astros could find a RH reliever to replace the departing LH reliever. The Orioles have some interesting bullpen options. I recommend the Fangraphs article “Can I interest you in a lightly used Oriole.” The article discusses the pros and cons of trade pieces among the Orioles’ relievers, starting pitchers, and hitters.
More from crawfishboxes.com:
- Verlander Regression? Astros Trending: Week in Review, June 28-July4.
- Astros Prospect Report: July 5th, 2018
- Game Recap: Never Settle, Never Quit. Springer, Gurriel Get the Clutch Hit.
- Houston Astros Sprinting through Stretch of Weaker Competition
- Astros Trade: James Hoyt to Cleveland, Tommy DeJuneas to Houston
- Astros Prospect Report: July 4th, 2018
- The Astros Have the Best Bullpen in Baseball.
