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MMQB - Run to Set Up the Pass

WHAT'S THE STORY?

NCAA Football: Penn State Blue-White Spring Game
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Heading into 2025, there’s no doubt that Penn State is going to be a run-first football team.

First, their offensive line is predicted to be one of the best in the country. Second, they have what may be the top running back room in the nation, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen both vying to sit atop the all-time Penn State rushing leaderboard. Third, the Penn State pass game is undergoing a complete retooling.

Here’s why points 1 and 2 will help set up point 3.

Under Andy Kotelnicki, Penn State

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figured to have some fun on offense in 2024. And it was fun, including lots of oddball formations and trick plays. The biggest downside was that apparently no receivers were capable of gaining any meaningful separation aside from Tyler Warren, and so as the season went on, AK had to lean more and more on the run game - to the point that in the final game of the season, not a single wide receiver caught the ball.

Going into 2025, Kotelnick has to assume that the run game will still be the strength of the team. Or, perhaps, that it will be the strength in the early portion of the schedule. If that is the way things go, I fully expect Penn State to lean on Singleton and Allen not just against Nevada, FIU, and Villanova, but also against Oregon, at least to start.

Bear in mind, the last time Penn State played Oregon, the Lions ripped off 297 yards on the ground at 8.7 yards per carry. I 100% expect the Lions to come out and move the ball on the ground.

But here’s the other thing: I expect Oregon is going to come out, with 3 weeks of video showing the Lions running all over the place, and with film from the B1G conference championship game, and commit to stopping the run.

Which will be all the better when Drew Allar and the revamped receiving corps suddenly start connecting through the air.

In 2024, Penn State had the 26th overall offense in yards per game, at 430.2. They were 17th on the ground, but a paltry 66th in passing. This conveyed itself to points per game as well, where they were 28th overall, scoring 33.1 PPG. If anything, I anticipate that the rushing rank will improve toward a top 10 ranking, but watch out if that passing game can move up to a top 50 - or even top 25 - unit.

As the Lions ground and pound opponents into dust, expect defenses to sell out more and more to stop the run. Then, watch as Allar and Co. strike through the air, giving teams no real chance at all. Leave no doubt.

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