It’s the eve of Spring Training for the San Francisco Giants! If you’re sad that this is the first day without football, you can rejoice that it’s the last day without baseball!
There will be a little overlap
between Spring Training and our Community Prospect List, which will see us rank the top 44 prospects in the organization. But there won’t be much overlap, because we’re somehow already almost done!
The next name on the list is someone who is facing a critical season ahead of him: it’s outfielder Rayner Arias, who has been voted as the No. 38 prospect in the system. It’s a drop of a whopping 34 spots for the right-handed hitting and fielding Arias, who was voted the No. 4 prospect in last year’s CPL.
Arias still has a few more months of teenage life, yet it’s already been quite a roller-coaster of a career for him. He was signed in 2023 out of the Dominican Republic, and immediately made an impression as one of the most dynamic players in the system. He played 16 games in the Dominican Summer League after signing, and the numbers are almost comical: he hit 24-58 with 12 extra-base hits, 15 walks, and just 11 strikeouts. It made for a not-a-type slashline of .414/.539/.793, with a 1.333 OPS and a 233 wRC+. And it’s not like he was old for the level, or a slugging pillar of salt first baseman: he had just turned 17, was playing a delightful center field, and added four stolen bases.
The only downside with his magical debut was that it was cut short, when he injured his wrist diving for a fly ball.
That injury seemed to prove costly. He showed up at Papago for his stateside debut in 2024, and it went quite poorly. He hit just .250/.371/.364 for a .735 OPS and a 98 wRC+ for the organization’s Arizona Complex League. The bat speed and power thump had almost entirely evaporated, as his average was modest despite a high BABIP, and his isolated slugging plummeted from .379 to .114, without a single home run. His strikeout rate rose from 14.5% to 25.7%, he stole just three bases (while being caught three times), and his defense looked considerable worse. And just to really make matters worse, he was limited to just 25 games, after re-injuring his wrist, again while diving for a fly ball.
While it was a bad 2024, the glass half full view was that he wasn’t fully healthy, and his results would flourish when he could get on a field with good health. Unfortunately, that half-full glass was spilled in 2025, when Arias remained healthy all year. He returned to the Arizona Complex League, and in 47 games hit just .242/.333/.366 with three home runs, resulting in just a .699 OPS and an 87 wRC+, while virtually repeating his strikeout rate (25.8%). He did make his Low-A San Jose debut, but not on merit — it was more to get reps while he was suspended from the ACL for a scuffle, and to help with roster logistics as the Baby Giants dealt with a string of outfield injuries. In seven games with San Jose, Arias did nothing to prove that his struggles in the ACL were an aberration: he hit just 1-for-25 with nine strikeouts.
And so Arias enters a highly critical 2026. It’s hard to believe the player who was not just putting up absurd numbers, but wowing scouts with his athleticism, power, contact ability, and feel for the game just up and vanished overnight. But after looking like a five-tool star, we’re now two years into Arias looking like a zero-tool player whose opportunities are on the verge of running dry. The optimistic view is that, while Arias was healthy in 2025, his injured wrist was still impacting his game, either through lingering pain, a lack of confidence, or some compensations that his body had made.
To my eye, Arias feels like one of the most must-watch prospects in the system this year, because it feels like his potential outcomes are so extreme. Could I see him struggling once again, and no longer being a prospect of note at all in a year? Yes. Could I see him recovering, putting all those tools on display, and jumping back into the top-10 next year? Also yes. Can I see something in the middle? Not really, though that’s usually the most likely outcome. In a way, he’s the (much younger) Reggie Crawford of the position players: you can’t trust him to be healthy and good, but if he is, then he’s probably going to be really good.
Now let’s add to the list, and we’ve got some new names to vote on today! As a reminder, voting takes place in the comment section using the “rec” feature.
The list so far
- Bryce Eldridge — 1B
- Josuar González — SS
- Jhonny Level — SS
- Bo Davidson — CF
- Dakota Jordan — CF
- Luis Hernández — SS
- Gavin Kilen — SS
- Carson Whisenhunt — LHP
- Blade Tidwell — RHP
- Keyner Martinez — RHP
- Jacob Bresnahan — LHP
- Trevor McDonald — RHP
- Argenis Cayama — RHP
- Luis De La Torre — LHP
- Trevor Cohen — OF
- Jesús Rodríguez — C
- Parks Harber — OF/3B
- Carlos Gutierrez — OF
- Drew Cavanaugh — C
- Daniel Susac — C
- Gerelmi Maldonado — RHP
- Josh Bostick — RHP
- Lorenzo Meola — SS/2B
- Will Bednar — RHP
- Yunior Marte — RHP
- Joe Whitman — LHP
- Joel Peguero — RHP
- Alberto Laroche — RHP
- Trent Harris — RHP
- Carlos De La Rosa — LHP
- Diego Velasquez — 2B
- Lisbel Diaz — OF
- Maui Ahuna — SS
- Cam Maldonado — OF
- Victor Bericoto — OF/1B
- Reid Worley — RHP
- Jack Choate — LHP
- Rayner Arias — OF
Note: Clicking on the above names will link to the CPL where they were voted onto the list.
No. 39 prospect nominees
Sabin Ceballos — 23.5-year old 3B — .670 OPS/102 wRC+ in AA (420 PA)
Jakob Christian — 23.4-year old OF/1B — .950 OPS/155 wRC+ in High-A (92 PA); .815 OPS/119 wRC+ in Low-A (318 PA)
Reggie Crawford — 25.2-year old LHP — did not pitch in 2025; 1.04 ERA/4.07 FIP in AAA in 2024 (8.2 IP); 4.66 ERA/4.93 FIP in AA in 2024 (9.2 IP)
Nate Furman — 24.6-year old 2B — .970 OPS/188 wRC+ in AA (39 PA); 1.139 OPS/211 wRC+ in High-A (96 PA); 1.283 OPS/237 wRC+ in Low-A (15 PA)
Juan Sánchez — 25.2-year old LHP — did not pitch in 2025; 3.93 ERA/5.17 FIP in AAA in 2024 (34.1 IP)
Charlie Szykowny — 25.7-year old 3B/1B — .816 OPS/122 wRC+ in High-A (549 PA)
Jancel Villarroel — 21.0-year old C — .699 OPS/91 wRC+ in High-A (61 PA); .746 OPS/123 wRC+ in Low-A (372 PA)
Note: Each player’s first name links to their Baseball-Reference page, and their last name links to their Fangraphs page. All stats are from the 2025 season.
