From now until preseason camp starts later this week, Land-Grant Holy Land will be writing articles around a different theme every week. This week is all about the things we need to get off our chests before the season starts; the things we need to get on the record. You can catch up on all of the Theme Week content here and all of our ”On the Record” articles here.
It wasn’t the formula any Ohio State fan wanted to use to get the Buckeyes to their eventual national championship last season. The Buckeyes lost
two games, but still did enough to get invited to the College Football Playoff, and then ripped through Tennessee and Oregon before surviving Texas and Notre Dame to lift the trophy.
With a revamped offensive line, a completely new defensive line — oh yeah, and a new quarterback — Ohio State might have a similar 2025 season. It might not be what OSU fans want to hear, but that’s what I think will happen, and since this is our On the Record theme week, I wanted to make sure my prediction comes well in advance of any games being played or votes being cast by the CFP Committee.
There are a lot of moving parts with the 2025 Buckeyes, and some of those have already been mentioned above. The offensive and defensive lines will need to gel with new players, the entire defense has to adjust from Jim Knowles’ system to Matt Patricia’s, new running backs have to step up and prove they can do the job TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins did a year ago, and a new starting quarterback has to get comfortable, perform well on the field, and earn the trust of his teammates and head coach.
Ohio State has the talent to accomplish all of the above, but having talent alone isn’t enough. Teams much better equipped to win a national title for the university have failed to do so in the not-too-distant past. But the expanded playoff gives teams mulligans, and Ohio State used those to their advantage last year. The Buckeyes can, and (I’m saying it here) will do so again.
So, which two games will Ohio State drop?
Although in a similar situation to the Buckeyes, the Texas Longhorns will likely be one of those teams that get a W against Ohio State. I don’t think the Longhorns are better or more talented, but they have two things that the Buckeyes don’t.
First, they’ve got the revenge factor. Some people don’t believe that’s a thing, but I firmly do. Texas’ returning players have been living with Jack Sawyer’s scoop and score for months, and will not have played a game since that nervy Cotton Bowl, which saw the Longhorns set up nicely with a first-and-goal situation that was both mismanaged by Steve Sarkisian and blown up by the OSU defense.
Texas will have spent a lot of off-season energy focused on the Aug. 30 rematch in the Horseshoe.
The second reason I like Texas in this game is that the Longhorns have a more settled quarterback situation. Arch Manning has been the heir apparent for some time. His time is now, and he’s prepared. Meanwhile, whether it’s just personnel/portal management or not, Ryan Day did not name a starter coming out of spring football, and although many believe Julian Sayin will be the starter on opening day, Lincoln Kienholz could still end up with the job.
I prefer to think both are capable than entertain the thought that neither was able to stake their claim to the position. Either way, Texas seems to have a more settled and straightforward approach at the game’s most important position, and that could be the difference on Aug. 30.
As for the second OSU loss... well, I’m not quite sure. There are multiple candidates on the schedule. The most likely is Penn State, because if James Franklin and the Nittany Lions can’t get over the Columbus-sized bump in the road this year... when can they?
The Nitts may never be better positioned to get a statement win over the Buckeyes under Franklin. Penn State has a lot of returning players from a strong 2024 team and poached Ohio State’s defensive coordinator in the offseason. If not now, when?
I hate to say it, but I feel compelled — the Buckeyes could also lose The Game. Ohio State visits Michigan this season, and in a rivalry series anything can happen. That was the case from Woody Hayes’ tenure until a dominant run by Michigan against John Cooper’s Buckeyes, which Ohio State flipped around under Jim Tressell and Urban Meyer.
That Team Up North has had the better of things the past few years, and I think it’s in large part because they built a team specifically to beat one opponent — Ohio State.
The Wolverines have enough talent to handle bad and mediocre teams, but they’re not immune to falling against other top teams. It’s just that the Buckeyes have stepped on thousands of rakes in recent years and have hardly looked themselves in The Game. Credit Michigan for some of that, but it’s fair to say recent Ohio State teams did not make things tough on the Wolverines in terms of physicality, play calling, or in-game decisions.
The OSU team that showed up for Tennessee, Oregon (redux), Texas, and Notre Dame last year would have mopped up the field with the Wolverines. However, it’s possible that team would not have become what it did without that embarrassment at home.
It’s important to note that I think Ohio State can beat Michigan, but there is another variable at play. If sanctions come down against the Wolverines, The Game might be their bowl game and their rallying cry for the 2025 season.
If it’s not Penn State or Notre Dame, no one on the schedule looks likely to beat Ohio State. However, there’s a run of four games on the schedule that could be problematic. Those start with a trip to Seattle to play the Washington Huskies on Sept. 27.
I expect the Huskies are going to be a much better football team in 2025, and they’re incredibly difficult to beat in their home stadium. The next week, Minnesota visits Ohio Stadium. The Buckeyes should handle their business, but if there are turnovers or penalty issues against the Gophers, that game could be tight in the fourth quarter, and anything can happen.
On Oct. 11, the Illibuck rivalry resumes, and the game is going to take place in the wind tunnel of Memorial Stadium. Ohio State quarterbacks over the years have struggled to adjust to the wind, and the Fighting Illini have a growing football program. They may not be quite the pushover as in recent years.
Finally, there’s a trip to Madison on Oct. 18. If that’s a night game, it will not be easy to beat the Badgers at Camp Randall Stadium. Again, the Buckeyes are better on paper, but the question marks entering the season mean that there will be some adversity along the way.
It’s going to be difficult to get throught the Big Ten season unbeaten with so many starters to replace. If the Buckeyes lose to Texas, I think it’s reasonable to expect one other loss. However, I think the Big Ten is a strong conference that will send multiple teams to the playoff, so all Ohio State has to do is finish in the top three, which I think it can and — barring key injuries — will.
So there it is. I’m on the record as predicting two losses for Ohio State during the regular season. I still think the Buckeyes will do enough to reach the postseason. I don’t know that they’ll get to host a game this year, but if last season showed us anything, it’s that a blooded and angry Ryan Day-led OSU team in the playoff is a beautiful thing to behold.
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