Fresh off a demoralizing series loss to the AL East-leading Blue Jays Wednesday, the Yankees will host their first home game since the All-Star break tonight as they welcome the Phillies to the Bronx. Philadelphia enters the series a half-game back of the Mets for the NL East division lead after taking two of three from the Red Sox at home. Like the Yankees, the Phillies have squandered a division lead, albeit by a much smaller magnitude — their edge peaked at three games back in May. Let’s take
a look at the probable starting pitchers for this showdown between two playoff hopefuls.
Friday: Will Warren vs. Taijuan Walker (7:05 pm ET)
It’s been a tough stretch for Will Warren. After starting July with an eight-run implosion in Toronto, the rookie put together a couple of strong outings before another blow-up, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings in Atlanta last time out. He’s raised his ERA more than half a run this month, calling into question his ability to stick if and when Luis Gil and Ryan Yarbrough are healthy. One reason for optimism, at least as it pertains to tonight’s outing — Warren has been a different pitcher at home than on the road, with a 3.00 ERA in the friendly confines of Yankee Stadium and a 7.20 mark everywhere else.
He’ll face Taijuan Walker, the veteran swingman expected to make his third turn back in the rotation since an extended stint in the bullpen. Walker has been much more effective in relief than in the rotation, with opponents hitting .190 against him out of the bullpen but .271 as a starter. He’s lasted only four innings in each of his last two starts while throwing no more than 70 pitches, implying he’s not fully stretched out to a starter’s workload. Last time out, he allowed three runs on nine hits, two of them homers, to the Angels in an eventual victory.
Saturday: Marcus Stroman vs. Ranger Suárez (1:05 pm ET)
When Marcus Stroman rejoined the Yankees after two-and-a-half months on the IL, it was unclear what his role would be. He’s been the Yankees’ best starter since that time, going 2-0 with a rotation-best 3.00 ERA. His last time out, the 34-year-old held the Braves to just one run in six innings of work in the series-clinching victory. He threw a season-high 95 pitches in that outing, the surest sign yet of his entrenchment in the Yankees’ rotation.
He’s lined up to face Ranger Suárez. One of two shadow All-Stars in the Phillies’ rotation, the southpaw has been dominant in 14 starts after starting the season on the shelf, pitching to a 2.66 ERA while allowing just six homers in 88 innings. While opponents are hitting .292 against Suárez’s sinker, his primary pitch, they’ve managed just four extra-base hits. The results have been even more impressive for his two top secondary pitches; batters are below the Mendoza line against both his changeup and cutter.
Sunday: Carlos Rodón vs. Zack Wheeler (1:35 pm ET)
It’s been an up-and-down month for Carlos Rodón. He began July with the worst outing of his All-Star season so far, allowing seven runs (six earned) in five innings against the Mets. He bounced back admirably his next time out, befuddling the then-first-place Cubs across eight scoreless innings in a triumphant close to the first half. As has been a trend of late, he then had a frustrating outing in Toronto that was more due to the defense behind him than the lefty himself, with four runs coming across in five innings in large part because of a two-error fifth.
You could make a very strong case that Zack Wheeler has been the best pitcher in baseball since signing a five-year, $118 million deal with the Phillies before the 2020 season — his 28.5 fWAR over that period is more than five ahead of the next-best starter. You could also make a very strong case that he’s in the midst of a career year; the 35-year-old is posting what would be career highs in both ERA (2.39) and ERA+ (180). After throwing a complete game one-hitter against the Reds on July 6th, he’s looked more human in his last two starts, with the veteran completing six innings in each while allowing four and two runs, respectively. He did punch out 10 Red Sox in his most recent outing, boosting his NL-best total to 164.
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