Baseball is a complicated enough sport that oftentimes, when something looks particularly obvious and yet isn’t being done, it’s easy to assume the powers that be know something we don’t. That being said, this doesn’t mean it’s impossible to find validation once that potential obvious subject comes true, and a clear example of it is Seth Lugo and his success as a starter.
With the Royals three games under .500, Lugo could hit the market at the Trade Deadline if the Royals want to cash in on the 35-year-old
righty. Who better than the pitching-needy Yankees to capitalize on this possibility?
2025 Statistics: 18 starts, 107 IP, 2.94 ERA (139 ERA+), 4.37 FIP, 4.07 xFIP, 21.8% K%, 7.3% BB%, 1.0 fWAR
2025 FanGraphs Depth Charts Rest of Season Projections: 12 starts, 70 IP, 4.14 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 20.5% K%, 6.8% BB%, 0.9 fWAR
Contract Status: Making $15 million this season, and he has a player option for the same amount in 2026.
You won’t find a better opportunity to avoid paying top dollar for a starter with a sub-3.00 ERA, and there are plenty of reasons why. First and foremost, it’s rather evident that Lugo’s production has more than a hint of good fortune. The HR/9 that was at 0.70 last year has roughly doubled, and yet the veteran righty hasn’t been punished due to an extremely low BABIP (.244) and high LOB% (86.3%).
Instead of taking these negative points to discourage a move for Lugo, we can try and look at the player the Yankees would acquire, and not the production he’s put up this year. 2024 was a career year as he finished runner-up to Tarik Skubal for the AL Cy Young Award, and while Lugo probably won’t be that good again, he has still shined.
Going on his third season since becoming a full-time starter, Lugo has presented enough of a sample size for a proper evaluation without your usual durability concerns of reliever-turned-starting-pitcher. Dating back to the beginning of 2023, Lugo has tossed over 450 innings with a 3.17 ERA and 1;12 WHIP, outstanding numbers for a pitcher who hadn’t started regularly since 2017.
Lugo’s profile was one of the reasons why many people encouraged his move to a rotation well before it came to fruition. The righty was different from your common reliever, relying primarily on a kitchen sink approach, more of a starter’s mindset. With his most-used pitch in 2025 being the four-seamer at 21 percent, Lugo has one of the deepest arsenals in the game. About that four-seamer, it actually brings us to one of his most clear adjustments since becoming a Royal.
Lugo had found success in his first year as a full-time starter with the Padres in ‘23, but his four-seamer, which he used at 31.7 percent of the time, got hit around a bit (.472 SLG). The Royals had Lugo leaning further away from the fastball, dropping that usage to 24 percent last year and 21 this season. The pitch doesn’t yield great results all of a sudden, but to function properly while relying less on it is enough of a win.
When it comes to his potential availability, the Royals could very well be open to offers on his service unless they think they can keep him. Even if Lugo struggles down the stretch though, chances are overwhelming that he’ll exercise the opt-out and earn a lot more money than the one-year, $15 million deal he is set to make in case he doesn’t. The Royals entered the year with lofty expectations after making their first postseason in nearly a decade in 2024. But the Tigers have run away with the division, and at 49-53, a Wild Card run is unlikely to say the least for KC. It has been a trying year with the Ragans injury and an outfield production that severely makes you question the entire development system of the organization, but the Royals still have enough of a core to go for a retool, eyeing a return to contention in 2026.
If there is one player to move no questions asked, it’s probably Lugo. He’d fit perfectly with a team in need of some depth in the rotation following all the injuries this team has endured. The Yankees shouldn’t have to be forced to count upon guys like Will Warren or Marcus Stroman in an October rotation. Lugo would slot in nicely near the top alongside Max Fried and Carlos Rodón.
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