Problems abound when you try to write about trade rumors less than 48 hours before the mid-season trade deadline. First, the obvious problem is that the rumors may not be accurate or represent someone’s wishful thinking. Second, by the time you write about particular rumors, the rumor cycle has already moved on to its next phase. Third, seldom do the rumors tell you much about the required trading pieces.
That said, we have seen some rumors which are of intense interest to Astros’ fans. So, I’ll give
some reactions. Good or bad, the most likely outcome is that nothing comes of these rumored trades. But....if one or more did happen, the impact, good or bad, would be significant.
Dylan Cease
The Astros have been connected to rumors surrounding Dylan Cease, the Padres’ starting pitcher. And I’m sure a lot of teams would welcome Cease at the trade deadline; so being mentioned doesn’t mean likely. If it’s a matter of trading resources, many teams have more prospect resources than the Astros. But supposedly the Padres want MLB players, not prospects. And that may limit the teams who would compete for Cease. Rumor has it that the Padres would like a catcher. So, could either Diaz or Caratini be an option in such a trade? Who knows, really.
The question I can analyze is “Would he be a valuable rental addition?” And my answer is “yes.” Cease’s actual pitching results this year seem like a down year. He has a 4.79 ERA; not so good. But his peripheral stats scream “he was unlucky,” and point to his ability to perform like the Cy Young candidate he has been in the past. His x-ERA is 3.54 and his x-FIP is 3.39. His 11.64 K/9 is among the best of his career. His rest of season projections are right in line with the x-ERA. His Stuff+, Location+, and Pitching + this year are reasonably good. In terms of run prevention equivalence of his stuff, his PitchBot ERA is 3.66.
Given the Astros pitching coaches’ ability to bring out the best in pitchers, I think he could be an impactful trade if the Astros pulled the trigger on it. Would the trade be worth it—-that depends on the cost.
Carlos Correa
Bob Nightengale tweeted this:
Houston Astros mulling reunion with Carlos Correa; Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suárez also in mix. https://t.co/vU0UhckalP
— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) July 30, 2025
The idea of reuniting with the Carlos Correa, who is beloved by the fan base, is quite intriguing. I will admit that it seems unliikely this will happen. There are just a bunch of contractual and monetary issues that would have to be addressed in a short amount of time.
But, from the Astros’ perspective, there are some advantages to this idea. The obvious one is that he could replace the injured Isaac Paredes at third base. (In future seasons, one could envision Paredes or Correa playing 2d base.) Correa would be a great leader in the clubhouse down the stretch. And he is friends with some of the remaining Astros’ veterans. More importantly, by taking on a big contract, the prospect-poor Astros might be able to minimize the trading cost. (I am assuming that the Astros would want Minnesota to provide some contract relief—-but even if that happens, it is still a big contract amount.)
There are disadvantages though. It seems almost impossible to avoid piercing the CBT threshold. Some have suggested that owner Jim Crane is willing to do so for the right acquistion. He was willing to do so for making an offer to Alex Bregman, and Correa would seem to be a comparable player. I’m not going to get into the details of Correa’s financial impact—which would mean discussing three vesting option years in 2029-2032. But suffice it is to say that the AAV is $33.33 M at least through 2028. I also think that Correa continues to be more injury prone as he ages, and with at least three more years down the road, this is a significant risk.
Let’s look at the baseball side of the equation. Correa is having a down season so far with a wRC+ of 97. But the Statcast data seems to indicate that a rebound this year is a reasonable possibility. His xwOBA is 27 points higher than his wOBA and his x-SLG is more than 70 points higher than his actual SLG. And the 9 rest of season (ROS) projections on his Fangraphs page predict a wRC+ between 115 and 120. But what about the remaining years of his contract when we should continue to see aging effects? As mentioned above, injuries are a potential risk. But the ZIPS three year projection through 2027 is fairly decent, with OPS ranging from .747 - .797 and WAR ranging from 2.4 - 3.9. Is this a good gamble? I’m not really sure, but I could see the front office viewing it as a reasonable risk to take.
We also don’t know if this would be negotiated as a package deal. The Astros have been eyeing the Twins’ Willi Castro as a rental bat. If the Twins go all in on trading off their roster, pitchers like starter Joe Ryan and set up reliever Griffin Jax could be on the trading block. Let your imagination run wild, I guess. We know so little, we can paint our own unrealistic scenarios.
Nolan Arenado
The Nightengale tweet also mentioned the Astros and Nolan Arenado. Arenado, the slick fielding 34 year old 3d baseman, was the subject of Astros-Cardinals trade talks during the preseason. Arenado turned down the trade, and the Astros moved on at the time. Financially, this is similar to the Correa situation. Arenado has a 30.5 M AAV though 2027. Reportedly, the Astros’ preseason trade negotiations would have included a sharing of the cost between the Astros and Cardinals. It is unknown whether Arenado has changed his mind on a trade.
However, since the pre season, Arenado’s offensive performance has taken an abrupt downward move. Arenado’s current wRC+ is a poor 84. This type of severe decline could be an advance sign of the age-related falling numbers which concerned me when the trade was being discussed in the pre season. Arenado is four years older than Correa, and expecting a rebound from the older player may be more problematic.
I would be concerned that Arenado would come at a high monetary cost with mostly defensive value in return. Of course, we don’t know how much contract cost the Cardinals would pay or the trading cost. Maybe the Astros could negotiate a reasonable deal. But I am a skeptic.
Jesus Sanchez
Chandler Rome wrote that the Astros appeared to be focusing on Marlins OF Jesus Sanchez as a LH bat. This rumor seems more feasible or realistic than the Cease, Correa, and Arenado rumors. Sanchez is a good platoon option who is under team control through 2027.
On an overall basis, Sanchez is pretty close to an average bat (100 wRC+), but all of the FG ROS projections foresee a higher 109 - 117 wRC+ for the remainder of the year. However, Sanchez’s ability to hit RHPs is the big improvement offered by Sanchez. So far this season Sanchez has hit for the following slash line against RHP: .278, .344, .448 (.792 OPS). Sanchez’s value as a platoon bat and hitter off the bench would continue to benefit the Astros over the next two years.
Sanchez would be a reasonably good pick up for the Astros, assuming that the trading cost is low enough.
More from crawfishboxes.com:
- Verlander Regression? Astros Trending: Week in Review, June 28-July4.
- Astros Prospect Report: July 5th, 2018
- Game Recap: Never Settle, Never Quit. Springer, Gurriel Get the Clutch Hit.
- Houston Astros Sprinting through Stretch of Weaker Competition
- Astros Trade: James Hoyt to Cleveland, Tommy DeJuneas to Houston
- Astros Prospect Report: July 4th, 2018
- The Astros Have the Best Bullpen in Baseball.
