After signing Damian Lillard, trading for Jrue Holiday, and drafting Yang Hansen, the Portland Trail Blazers can look back on the last four weeks with a sense of accomplishment. They’ve remade their rotation and given fans reasons for hope, or at least anticipation, in the seasons ahead. But how much hope and/or anticipation is justified? In the aftermath of Portland’s big stretch, here’s the near-inevitable question from the Blazer’s Edge Mailbag.
Dear Dave,
I’m excited about our potential now. Between
ADDame and Jrue we’ve got a pair of guards like nobody else. I know Dame is hurt but I can still see him occupying an important spot when he gets back off the bench maybe? I think Jrue is instant help. I’m excited about Hansen too. With a little growth from the players already here I think this team could shape up to be a sneaky contender or a real playoff threat at least. I see a lot of versatility and talent. I know you’re usually more pessimistic but I want to see if the Blazers now pass the Dave Test. What do you think? Did we just see them make a jump before our eyes?
James
A jump? Sure. It’s possible. The question is how high, right?
Most people want to talk about starting lineups and rotation spots. That’s an interesting discussion, but it skips a step. We’re ignoring the fact that we don’t know what rotation spots the majority of the roster will occupy under ideal circumstances. We know there will be a starting five because there has to be. The real question is, will Portland field a starting five competitive with the better NBA teams? Same with the bench rotation.
To answer that, we can just skip to whose skill sets and talents might mesh with whose. We have to ask how these players are going to perform in the first place.
The unspoken truth of this roster is that, in a vast majority of cases, we don’t know.
Take a look at the list below. I’ve divided Portland’s players into three categories:
Hoping for a Breakout—Players who have not yet reached their optimal production who are, in essence, still proving themselves. They need something more to meet expectations.
Established—Players who have met expectations, reaching a full plateau. This doesn’t prevent them from growing further. It means if they don’t, everyone is still pretty happy with where they are.
Hoping for a Bounce-back or Recovery—Players who have already been in apex form but because of age, injury, or other circumstances need to bounce back to that form to be the player we expect or even get close.
Check out the list.
Hoping for a Breakout
- Shaedon Sharpe
- Scoot Henderson
- Kris Murray
- Rayan Rupert
- Duop Reath
- Donovan Clingan
- Yang Hansen
- Head Coach Chauncey Billups (not included in cost)
Total Cost: $38.2 million
Established
- Toumani Camara
- Deni Avdija
Total Cost: $14.6 million
Hoping for a Bounce-back/Recovery
- Robert Williams III
- Matisse Thybulle
- Jerami Grant
- Jrue Holiday
- Damian Lillard
Total Cost: $103.3 million
As you can see, 12 of Portland’s 14 players have question marks surrounding them, either whether they’ll grow into an amazing, fully-functional player or whether they’ll get back to being one. Only two players are running on all cylinders while meeting or exceeding expectations.
The vast majority of Portland’s cap space and roster spots lie invested in players we don’t really know about. No matter what the names on the jerseys read, that’s not a great situation. A quick glance through the roster of the Oklahoma City Thunder—who also skew young but are obviously far more successful than Portland—reveals 7-8 players in the Established category. The veteran New York Knicks and Minnesota Timberwolves have a similar number.
Potential is one thing. Huge variance is another. Opposing teams—the good ones, anyway—don’t have it to the extreme extent that the Blazers do.
If you’re talking about excitement or extra scoops of hope to dish onto your Summer Sundae, the Blazers have it, absolutely. If you’re talking about contending in the cold light of a new season, Portland still has a ton to prove. The chances of all those players—or even a majority of them—reaching or regaining potential are pretty small. As a general rule, if you can’t describe your squad’s prospects in the coming year without copious use of the word “if”, they’re not as far along as you think.
I’m also keenly aware that the cost of the first category—players on their way up—is going to increase over the next couple seasons. The Blazers need answers soon. Their young guys will start getting paid like established players whether they’re actually established or not while their recovering players will either drift off or age out of the roster. Loving the current lineup means acknowledging seriously that it probably won’t be together in recognizable form three years from now. Mixing a need for speed with this many roster variables is a daunting and risky proposition.
For all these reasons, my assessment of this roster is still pretty modest despite the changes. I feel the anticipation and curiosity that most in the Trail Blazers’ orbit feel, but I also acknowledge the great dichotomy that has ruled this league since the beginning of time, almost: good teams sell wins, everybody else sells hope. The Blazers haven’t crossed the border into being able to sell performance yet. Until they do, a bit of skepticism is warranted when talking realistically about their chances of success.
Thanks for the question! You can always send yours to blazersub@gmail.com and we’ll try to answer as many as possible!
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