Costa Vs. Kopylov Odds, Full Fight Preview & Prediction

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Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Middleweight bruisers Paulo Costa vs. Roman Kopylov will clash TONIGHT (Sat., July 19, 2025) at UFC 318 inside Smooth King Center in New Orleans, Louisiana.

What the hell happened to “Borrachinha?” In 2020, he was undefeated, 28 years old, and coming off a win over Yoel Romero to challenge for UFC gold. Five years later, he’s won just a single fight and — worse than mere results — is stricken by hesitancy. Where is the bruiser who terrorized his opponent’s livers

mercilessly and shook off any return fire?

Hopefully, he’ll make another appearance at UFC 318.

After an 0-2 start to his UFC career, Kopylov has really fixed his gas tank and turned it around. The slick Southpaw kickboxer has won six of his last seven, most recently sealing an awesome victory over Chris Curtis with a last-second head kick. In this match up, Kopylov has the chance to capture the most high-profile win of his career.

Let’s take a closer look at the betting odds and strategic keys for each athlete:

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Costa vs. Kopylov Betting Odds

• Paulo Costa victory: +190
• Paulo Costa via TKO/KO/DQ: +550
• Paulo Costa via submission: +1600
• Paulo Costa via decision: +400
• Roman Kopylov victory: -230
• Roman Kopylov via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
• Roman Kopylov via submission: +3000
• Roman Kopylov via decision: +100
• Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Photo by Jeff Bottari/Zuffa LLC via Getty Images

How Costa Wins

Costa is actively fighting himself. At his best, he was a mauler, an elite combination of raw physicality and punishing combinations. Since losing to Israel Adesanya, Costa has attempted reinvention, but he’s not built to be a slick outside striker. He’s promised to return to his roots, but ... we’ll see.

There’s some idealized version of Paulo Costa who is both able to jab like he did versus Robert Whittaker and pressure his opponents relentlessly. If forced to choose, however, I would throw away the jab and return to pressure, particularly against a nasty Southpaw distance kicker in Kopylov. Plain and simple, Costa will pay dearly if he doesn’t rediscover his aggression and confidence. He does not want to spend 15 minutes getting kicked in the liver.

The bright side is Costa has shown the skills to win. He fights Southpaws well with his own kicking game, and he knows how to punch the body smartly. Kopylov’s footwork has failed him before in avoiding the fence. If Costa is simply willing to follow the obvious game plan and press Kopylov, the odds of his victory skyrocket.

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How Kopylov Wins

Kopylov is a lot of fun to watch. The Southpaw fires combinations and kicks in quick bursts, and he makes use of classic Southpaw tactics like the left hand/left kick double threat well. Better yet, there are interesting wrinkles to his boxing, like his habit of countering with body punches.

All told, he’s stopped 12 foes via knockout.

The entire Costa section was about breaking out of his shell, so it stands to reason that Kopylov’s goal is to convince Costa that opening up is a bad idea. Right off the bat, he should blast a few left kicks even if they land on the guard. Let Costa get a taste of his power, give him a reason to be nervous. Planting his feet early and sitting down on a counter combination could similarly shake Costa’s confidence.

If Costa does come forward heavily, Kopylov has to counter with linear attacks and body works. A few well-timed snap kicks into the belly could really steal some wind from Costa’s sails, buying Kopylov more time to go to work with his distance weapons at a more comfortable pace.

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Costa vs. Kopylov Prediction

Firstly, a confession and a recommendation: I have a hard time picking against fighters who have an obvious path to victory, even if they’re untrustworthy. I have been burned by Costa predictions more than once. I do not recommend tailing this pick.

Still, Costa has such an obvious strategy. If he just pressures Kopylov relentlessly — which, again, was the foundational pillar of his entire game and success — he’ll break the Russian down. Kopylov still fatigues and doesn’t react well when bullied. Costa is (was?) an all-time great bully.

I view this bout as definitive proof of whether or not Costa is utterly hopeless. If he can’t return to his previous form and style here, stick a fork in him. For one last time, I will aim some optimism in the “Borrachina” direction. There is no reason a 34 year old with just 18 professional bouts and a single knockout loss should be absolutely shot.

Prediction: Costa via decision

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