With the season drawing closer, Vegas is continuing to release final preseason odds and futures. We are now just 40 days away from the start of the season.
Last time around, we covered the best (and worst) futures for national title winners. Today, we’re looking a little more local: SEC Champ.
Let’s point you in the direction of where to put your money, as well as where not to. Most importantly why. Obviously, we’re only going to discuss plausible options here.
- Texas 11/4
- Georgia 3/1
- Bama 4/1
- LSU 7/1
- Ole Miss 14/1
- Texas A&M 16/1
- Florida 18/1
- Auburn 20/1
- Oklahoma 20/1
- South Carolina 20/1
- Tennessee 20/1
- Mizzou 40/1
- Arkansas 125/1
- Kentucky 300/1
- Vandy 300/1
- Miss. St 500/1
Worst Bets:
I really like the Sooners potential
this year. But, alongside the Crimson Tide, OU easily drew the conference’s most difficult schedule. The offense was significantly upgraded during the offseason, but the foundation isn’t quite there yet to win shootouts when the defense gets exploited — and it’s always a matter of when, not if. Other teams have the firepower to get them to Atlanta. OU may prove to have that soon, but not with this schedule. It’s not a matter of whether they could win in Atlanta; it’s the getting there that’s the main problem for the Sooners. And, despite the talent and improvement, away from their home field, OU was blown out by the league’s better teams. So, the winning part may still be up in the air. Even with a favorable 20 to 1, this one is probably just a waste of money.
For a different reason, LSU just isn’t there either. They’re getting the SEC’s fourth best odds to win in Atlanta, but even with a Heisman winner under center — and with a much stronger defense — BK managed to lose four regular season games before getting blown out by the Bulldogs in Atlanta. This year, the secondary has some questions and both lines are weaker than last year. Then that schedule: Trips to Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Alabama, with home visits by the Gators, Aggies and Gamecocks. This looks like an 8-4 team to me...if the lines improve. It could just as easily be a .500 squad.
Best Favorite:
The getting there may be the hardest part for this group. But with the SEC’s most touted defense, and its most talented offense, there’s not much that separates Alabama from an SEC title. The Tide may have two regular season losses this year (in fact, I count on it), but in a crowded field, that could be enough to get them there — esp. with Texas’ OL issues and tougher schedule, and the “everything-question marks” around UGA. If Ty Simpson is marginally competent, and the defensive line cleans up its rushing woes, ‘Bama can easily find itself in Atlanta. And once there, I wouldn’t want to try and stop the wealth of offensive weapons that the Tide bring to the field. Vegas sees the same thing I do: in a one-off, you don’t want to play Alabama. Alabama at 4/1 is “firm favorite” territory, and just a tad longer than the ones we’re giving to UGA (3/1) and Texas (2 3⁄4 to 1). This isn’t Gumpery: it’s just a decent bet. All Alabama needs to do is get there. But that’s the rub.
You could be lame and go with Texas or Georgia. But why?
Best Dark Horse:
None, really. This year the SEC’s roadmap is pretty clear: the title runs through Austin, Athens and/or Tuscaloosa, with Baton Rouge potentially waiting in the wings. I think, though, given momentum, portal signings, talent under center, recruiting, and just everything generally trending their direction, that the Florida Gators (18/1) are the best of some unpalatable options. The schedule is daunting...again. Trips to Baton Rouge, Oxford and College Station, and a home visit by the Longhorns and Vols, to go along the usual Cocktail Party meeting with UGA. UF will absolutely have to win out at home, and pull a road upset here or there. But next to the question marks and losses at A&M, Tennessee, and Ole Miss, this is not the worst dark(er) horse out there.
Want some more of these? I crank the data for (almost) every single game, every single week over at my companion site: (Almost) Giving Away Money. Check it out, and prosper.
Presently, we are going over the best and worst conference games for each team in the country.
Still just five bucks a month.
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