Series Preview: Houston Astros @ Arizona Diamondbacks

Photo by Leslie Plaza Johnson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

The Astros, having avoided a sweep in Seattle, continue their western US swing by visiting the Diamondbacks. If nothing else, Houston is assured of leaving Arizona still leading the AL West.

Diamondbacks’ Season to Date: Coming into 2025, the Diamondbacks held strong playoff aspirations. Having won the NL pennant in 2023 and being the loser in the triple-threat tiebreaker to end the 2024 season despite winning more games than 2023, the Diamondbacks used the 2024-25 offseason to load up in what figured

to be a competitive NL West. The biggest moves: Signing former Brewers and O’s ace Corbin Burnes to a massive 6 year/$210M deal and trading for Cleveland 1B Josh Naylor. Along with a mix of younger home-grown talent and productive veterans (even as they lost Walker), the Diamondbacks saw themselves in the hunt for 2025. Unfortunately, after a strong start, the team finds itself on the outside looking in for 2025 playoff ambitions. Injuries have struck the team hard, as well as inconsistent play. Do they sell, effectively punting on this season, or do they bank on getting hot down the stretch, even in the brutal NL West? They should be a fun team to watch from that aspect.

Diamondbacks Standings:

• 50-50 (4th NL West) 8.0 GB, 4.5 GB of final NL Wild Card
• Home Record: 25-25 (Astros: 24-23 Road Record)
• Record vs. AL West: 17-11 (Astros vs NL West: 15-11)
• Last 10: 5-5 [WLWLLLWWWW] (HOU:3-7 [WLLLLWLLLW])
• 2025 Record vs. Houston: first and scheduled only meeting
• All-Time Record vs. Houston: 69-80
• Post-season matchups: N/A

Diamondbacks Leaders

Offense:

HR: 3B Eugenio Suarez (35)

RBI: 3B Eugenio Suarez (85)

BA: 1B Josh Naylor (.292)

OPS: 3B Eugenio Suarez (.928)

Pitching:

ERA: Merrill Kelly (3.34)

Wins: Brandon Pfaadt (10)

Saves: Shelby Miller (10)

WHIP: Merrill Kelly (1.05)

Projected Pitching Matchups (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

• Monday, July 21 @7:40 p.m. CDT: Colton Gordon (3-2, 4.67 ERA) vs. Zac Gallen (7-10, 5.40 ERA)
• Tuesday, July 22 @ 7:40 p.m. CDT: Framber Valdez (10-4, 2.90 ERA) vs. Eduardo Rodriguez (3-6, 5.94 ERA)
• Wednesday, July 23 @ 1:40 p.m. CDT: Brandon Walter (1-3, 3.66 ERA) vs. Brandon Pfaadt (10-6, 4.82 ERA)

Diamondbacks Field Position Starters (SUBJECT TO CHANGE)

• C Jose Herrera
• 1B Josh Naylor
• 2B Ketel Marte
• 3B Eugenio Suarez
• SS Geraldo Perdomo
• LF Lourdes Gurriel, Jr.
• CF Alek Thomas
• RF Corbin Carroll
• DH Randal Grichuk

Diamondbacks Offense: The strength of the squad. Led by 1B Josh Naylor and 3B Eugenio Suarez, they rank 4^th in run scored, 5^th in OBP and 4^th in Slugging. They are 12^th in BA, so they may not get all the hits, but they get plenty of them, and they do tend to count. They led the league in runs scored last season, so that trend is holding to form. Arizona is noted for aggressive base-running the past couple of seasons, hence one of a couple reasons that Houston poached their 3^rd base coach, Tony Perezchica, this past offseason. While the Diamondbacks had a reputation for aggressive base running, they rank only 16^th in bases stolen.

Diamondbacks Pitching/Defense: Inconsistency/Ineffectiveness and injuries dominate this side of the ball. They rate in the lower third of MLB in ERA (26th), WHIP (23rd) and BAA (24th). The rotation, even during the late June/July swoon, showed signs of life, so the numbers might improve, at least for those players not shuttling on and off the IL. The bullpen has taken their hits, especially as key relievers are out like Puk, forcing the Diamondback to use relievers in high-leverage situations that didn’t factor into the original plans. Hence they are carrying the 26^th ranked bullpen for ERA and have blown the 3^rd most saves. Their fielding has been among the best in MLB the past two seasons, a key reason why Houston poached one of their infield coaches. It still is as they are tied for 3^rd in the MLB in fielding percentage.

Photo by Norm Hall/Getty Images

Most Dangerous Player: 3B Eugenio Suarez. On a team with a lot of offensive weapons, may as well look at the guy with some the best overall stats. Suarez leads the Diamondbacks in a lot of offensive categories. For a team where the offense is the strength, he might be the most dangerous weapon. His career stats against Houston: .245 BA, 7 HRs, 24 RBIs in 44 games. Plus, he comes into this series going thermonuclear at the plate with 6 HRs and 10 RBIs in his past 5 games. Given that Houston is playing more and more of its AAAA lineup, it may not take much to put a game out of reach. Suarez is that type of player. Whether he is helping Arizona’s 2025 chances, or auditioning for another team, that is another matter.

Injuries: If there is a team that doesn’t want to hear about all the Astros’ injuries, it’s the Arizona Diamondbacks. Consider the following butcher’s bill:

• P Corbin Burnes (Forearm), 60-Day IL. Projected Return: Late 2026
• P Jalen Beeks (Back), 15-Day IL, Projected Return: Late July
• P Shelby Miller (Forearm), 15-Day IL, Projected Return: Late July
• 1B Pavin Smith (Oblique), 10-Day IL, Projected Return: TBD
• C Gabriel Moreno (Hand), 60-Day IL, Projected Return: Late August
• P Ryan Thompson (Back), 15-Day IL, Projected Return: TBD
• P Tommy Henry (Forearm), 60-Day IL, Projected Return: Late 2026
• P Justin Martinez (Forearm), 60-IL, Projected Return: 2027
• 2B Ildemaro Vargas (Foot), 10-Day IL, Projected Return: TBD
• P A.J. Puk (Elbow), 60-Day IL, Projected Return: Late 2026
• P Christian Montes De Oca (Elbow/Back), 60-Day IL, Projected Return: Late 2026
• P Cristian Mena (Shoulder), 60-Day IL, Projected Return: TBD
• P Jordan Montgomery (Forearm), 60-IL, Projected Return: 2026
• P Blake Wilson (Forearm), 60-IL, Projected Return: 2026

Intangibles/Vibes: For a team with legitimate playoff ambitions, summer 2025 is not turning out very well. They stumbled into the All-Star Break, only winning 4 of their last 12 games. While the NL West overall has cooled off slightly from a torrid start, that is not a division to be trailing by so many games, even with the Rockies to help pad the win totals. The questions about whether the team will trade key stars or not can’t exactly help clubhouse morale. Also, all of the injuries have to wear on a squad, trying to integrate replacement players into a team desperate to stay in the playoff hunt. The managerial nor GM jobs appear in danger, although the Diamondbacks might want to review the med staff after the season (hint, hint Astros). Granted, they are undefeated since the All-Star Break, so what that means for the front office remains to be seen. It will likely take a long losing streak to alter any selling plans for the trade deadline.

Series Outlook: For the Diamondbacks, these first couple of series post-All-Star Break will do much to determine the strategic direction of the team. A sweep of Cardinals could offer some hope for a second-half push. The Diamondbacks management has not openly tipped their hand, but if their pre-All-Star Break slump carries over into those series before the trade deadline, the Diamondbacks’ front office phones will short out due to call volume. There’s talent for the taking in Arizona. For the on-field Diamondbacks, this series against the Astros could be considered the last stand of the 2025 season. Just what Houston needs after a battle against the Mariners: a desperate, dangerous and talented Diamondbacks team, with some momentum. A classic matchup of theoretical good pitching vs. theoretical good hitting should await the fanbases.

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