“He hasn’t pitched in 2 1/2 years. We’ve got to give some time, all right?” said Espada, who roughly a dozen times pounded his fist on the interview table in front of him.”
(from Steve Schaeffer’s postgame coverage of Astros vs. Reds from 5/11/25)
Fresh off a 13-9 loss at home against the Cincinnati Reds on May 11th, including a 10-run 1st inning, Lance McCullers sat with a 15.75 ERA as he was unceremoniously welcomed back to Daikin Park in catastrophic fashion as a starter for the first time since
the 2022 World Series against the Phillies. For said game, Lance was charged with 7 runs on 3 hits, 3 walks, and a homer, as he retired only one of eight batters faced before being pulled in just the first inning.
There were a myriad of reactions to this development. In one highly unreasonable case, some lunatic looked at this as a reason to jump out of the window and threaten him and his family online. Others, like manager Joe Espada, wanted to temper expectations and give Lance some time due to the very real fact that for two years he fought with injuries, doubt, and re-injury to finally make it back to the team and be a contributor as he once was before. Then you have the final group, who took the performance as confirmation of a concern long since held by many in the Astros fan base and certain corners of the local media: Lance McCullers’ Jr., who will always be remembered and regarded highly as a key figure in Astros history, (see 24 straight curveball against the Yankees in the 17’ ALCS) should get ready to face the reality that his best days are behind him and that a spot in the bullpen is the only way to salvage the rest of his Astros tenure, if not his career as a whole.
Since that Reds game, Lance has pitched in nine games, going: 40 IP, 42 H, 23 BB, 46 SO, 29 Runs scored against, and an ERA of 6.90.(including last night’s game against the Mariners: 5H, 3BB, 1K, 4ER, 2.2 IP) While his ERA is not 15.75 anymore, giving up an average of 7(!) runs a game by itself is still highly unacceptable by Major League standards (League average is currently 4.08), and that’s not even mentioning the Astros desperately looking for any and all help that they can, given the fact that they have 16+ players on IL and are trying to tread water with a 3.0 AL West division lead over the Mariners until more help arrives.
Straight up, the Astros have a losing record in games pitched by Lance, going 5-6 since his season debut against the White Sox on May 4th. In short, while Lance’s comeback itself is something to be celebrated, the objective truth is that his performances as of late are doing more harm than good for the team, and it might be beyond time for Lance to come out of the pen and save the rest of his season, and most importantly, his body.
As currently constructed, the Astros pen’ and its usage(the last 5 days) looks like this:
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While the Astros bullpen is ranked 4th in all of baseball with a 3.36 ERA, you can never have too many arms. And in this case, the Astros and Lance could benefit from leaning on an already successful unit while also protecting McCullers’s arm in the process by requiring less usage of his surgically repaired arm. It’s also a way to not over expose him in high leverage moments, thus limiting disastrous outings and putting him and the team in the best position for both short and long term success.
Lance is about to be on the final year of a 5 year/$85 Million contract in 26’, and then the team can go in a different direction outright if they feel like this is the end of the road for Lance in Houston. In the meantime, Spencer Arrighetti and Christian Javier have begun rehab assignments in the minors, and pitchers like Brandon Walter(3.66 ERA) and Colton Gordon(4.67 ERA) have held their own in their limited opportunities, arguably more so than Lance McCullers up until this point. So, there’s a very real possibility that upon the return of at least 2-3 starting pitchers, Lance might be the odd man out totally if he doesn’t show a willingness to adjust his position in the pitching rotation.
This is not a hit-piece on Lance McCullers. We are all grateful for his contributions to the modern baseball dynasty that is the Houston Astros. However, as fans and observers in the media, we should be allowed to have an honest conversation about players even if they hold a sentimental place in our hearts and minds.
Lance has been a soldier for this team since his debut in 2015, bringing a decade of dedication, intensity, and sacrifice, leading to multiple championships and his very famous phrase, “Bury me in the H”.
As admirable as that attitude was/is, at 31 years old, with a lengthy injury history and now emerging issues with velocity and control, maybe we have seen the last of Lance as an effective starting pitcher and now it’s time to bury that part of his career and transition him to a role that may better suit his skillset and physical capabilities. Hopefully Lance finds himself soon, or else conversations about his legacy in Houston will only grow louder and louder for those who will only remember his steep decline instead of his championship mettle.
As a final treat, here’s some in-depth insight into his pitch usage, their locations, and what might further explain his current struggles. Do with it responsibly. (Graphic courtesy of baseballsavant.mlb.com)
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(Editor’s note: This was written before Sunday’s game in Seattle, and some stats may be out of date)
(All other stats, references, and graphics provided by: MLB.com, baseball-reference.com, ESPN.com, covers.com, rotowire.com, and spotrac.com)
Clayton Anderson / Houston Sports Fan since 08’
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