2025 B1G Team Talent Preview: Penn State

Photo by CFP/Getty Images

Welcome to the 17th part in our series looking at the rosters of every Big Ten team as we head ever closer to opening day.

The order is organized by my team talent rankings. For more information on how those numbers came about, check out the intro for the Maryland post. And while you’re there, go ahead and read the whole thing then come back. We’ll wait for you.

Past Teams

Past Teams

Tier 5— 18. Maryland Terrapins, 17. Purdue Boilermakers

Tier 4— 16. Iowa Hawkeyes, 15. Minnesota Golden Gophers, 14. Northwestern

Wildcats

Tier 3— 13. UCLA Bruins, 12. Illinois Fighting Ilini, 11. Washington Huskies, 10. Rutgers Scarlet Knights, 9. Indiana Hoosiers, 8. Michigan State Spartans, 7. Wisconsin Badgers

Tier 2 — 6. USC Trojans, 5. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 4. Oregon Ducks

Tier 1 — 3. Michigan Wolverines

(Names in bold are projected starters by Phil Steele. Otherwise, names are listed in order of scoring in the talent ranking system)

Average 247 Composite Rating of Phil Steele Starter: 0.9082 (3rd)

Average # of Snaps Played by Phil Steele Starter: 1,004 (4th)

Average Career PFF grade of Phil Steele Starter: 69.6 (2nd)

TOTAL OFFENSE- 1,299 (1st)

Quarterback- 186 (1st)

Starter- Drew Allar (100)

Reserves- Ethan Grunkemeyer (49), Jaxon Smolik (26)

Would I really pick Drew Allar first in a draft of all Big Ten players? Probably, but I don’t think I’d be happy about it. Allar provides a sky high floor but there are others that might have a higher ceiling. Over his 3 seasons at Penn State, Allar’s yards per attempt have gone up from 5.7 to 6.7 to 8.4. He has a TD to INT ratio of over 5:1 and both his big-time throw and turnover-worthy play rates are right in line with Oregon-era Bo Nix. Allar may be a former five-star recruit but he has essentially developed into the A+ version of a game manager. That’s good enough to win a national title with provided you have the right pieces around you.

Penn State lost backup Beau Pribula to Missouri in the portal once he realized that Allar was coming back another year which was a big blow. Pribula is a premium athlete that provided a change-of-pace Wildcat QB option which is now missing. The rest of Penn State’s QB room outside of Allar has 13 career snaps and four-star redshirt freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer is the expected backup.

Running Back- 159 (1st)

Starter- Nick Singleton (97)

Reserves- Kaytron Allen (97), Quinton Martin (55), Jabree Wallace (51), Corey Smith (50)

Ohio State won the national title last year with the duo of Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson each eclipsing 1,000 rushing yards (albeit with the help of 16 games). Penn State will be looking to enact a similar formula as both of Singleton/Allen surpassed that with 1,100+ yards last season. Each returns for their 4th season of college football as former elite recruits who have played almost identical snap counts so far. Singleton was more highly rated out of high school and has been the better player in college, averaging 5.8 YPC with 32 TDs plus 767 yards through the air. Allen has been less boom/bust on the ground though while averaging 5.1 YPC with 24 TDs plus 422 yards through the air.

The #3 and #4 rushers on Penn State’s team last year were their two quarterbacks and their #5 rusher was their stud tight end. But 6 through 8 in total carries are all back as well to serve as the backup options if they decide to hand it off to anyone besides Singleton or Allen for some reason. The gap between Penn State at #1 here and Michigan at #2 is the same as between #2 Michigan and #12 Wisconsin.

Wide Receiver- 306 (8th)

Starters- Kyron Ware-Hudson (80), Devonte Ross (70), Trebor Pena (68)

Reserves- Liam Clifford (64), Kaden Saunders (59), Matt Outten (51), Lyrick Samuel (48)

The fatal flaw on last year’s Penn State team was the lack of a standout option on the outside although it’s fair to wonder how much of that is on the QB/offense versus the receivers*. Only one PSU wide receiver had over 22 catches and 415 yards last season and gone are three of their top four receivers.

Penn State went to the portal to upgrade the position and the top three in my talent rankings are all new transfers. Probably the biggest name is USC transfer Kyron Ware-Hudson who started 12 games with the Trojans and had a career best 38 catches for 462 yards last year. Devonte Ross had bigger numbers at a lower level with 1,042 yards and 11 TDs for Troy after transferring down from Kentucky earlier in his career. The late spring addition was Syracuse’s Trebor Pena who had 932 yards and 9 TDs last season in the ACC. Phil Steele has both Ross and Pena as 3rd team all-conference options.

The leading returning receiver is Liam Clifford who started 12 games last year but had just 286 yards. Otherwise no one else has played more than 175 career offensive snaps and so that foursome will do the majority of the work.

*Washington is hoping it’s not on the WRs since they imported Omari Evans who was 2nd among PSU WRs in catches...with just 21 in 16 games.

Tight End- 118 (3rd)

Starter- Luke Reynolds (74)

Reserves- Kahlil Dinkins (60), Andrew Olesh (57), Matt Henderson (50)

It’s going to be a major shift here with Penn State needing to replace 1st rounder Tyler Warren. He basically was the entire passing game last season as a do-everything star. The first man up will likely be Khalil Dinkins who was tied for 7th in receptions on last year’s team only...90 behind Warren. Luke Reynolds was last year’s #3 TE option as a high four-star true freshman and only had 11 fewer receiving yards than Dinkins so I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up seeing the most playing time as long as he develops on schedule.

There’s basically no experience other than the Reynolds/Dinkins combo with four new true freshmen led by high four-star Andrew Olesh who was the #3 TE recruit in the class of 2025.

Offensive Line- 531 (1st)

Starters- RT Nolan Rucci (83), LG Vega Ioane (81), RG Anthony Donkoh (78), LT Drew Shelton (74), Cooper Cousins (71)

Reserves- TJ Shanahan (64), Nick Dawkins (62), Malachi Goodman (57), J’ven Williams (56), Owen Aliciene (48)

(A note that my listed starters here are the 5 highest scorers even if some of them play the same position. If the backup right tackle has a higher rating than the starting left guard, the LG gets bumped to reserves above.)

This is a frustrating one for Husky fans as Penn State’s O-line is anchored by onetime UW commit and Seattle native Vega Ioane. Steele has Ioane listed as a preseason 1st team all-conference pick and has started 21 career games through 3 seasons for PSU. He finishes second in my talent formula behind former five-star Nolan Rucci who took over as the starter at RT halfway through last year after transferring in from Wisconsin. He took over for Anthony Donkah who is back again although Steele sees him sliding to RG this season.

The other two starters on the line are also returners who started all 16 games for Penn State last year. LT Drew Shelton finishes higher in my talent formula but Phil Steele lists C Nick Dawkins as 4th team all-conference in the preseason. That group with 4.5 returning starters should be close to set in stone. But Penn State did add Texas A&M transfer TJ Shanahan as some reinforcements with 5 career SEC starts. This should be the best unit in the conference if not the country.

Joe Rondone/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

TOTAL DEFENSE- 1,222 (3rd)

Defensive Line- 215 (6th)

Starters- Zane Durant (86), Alonzo Ford (63)

Reserves- Xavier Gilliam (47), Randy Adirika (44), Tyriq Blanding (42), Liam Andrews (40)

This is one area where it’s a bit of a surprise that Penn State didn’t try to add another piece in the portal to shore things up. There’s no question at the top spot as Zane Durant should be one of the best DTs in the country and is preseason 1st team all-conference from Phil Steele. It helped playing next to Abdul Carter but Durant had 28 QB pressures at 292 pounds as their primary interior pass rusher.

His running mate should be Alonzo Ford who was 4th among PSU DT’s last year in total snaps after transferring in from Old Dominion. He has played 16 more career snaps than Durant but almost all of them were at the G5 level. But no other DL on the roster has played even 70 career snaps. And Penn State unlike Oregon/Michigan/Ohio State hasn’t been stacking high four-stars along the DL consistently so the raw talent isn’t there in the same way as only 1 of the 9 scholarship players in the position group is a 0.90+ recruit.

Edge Rushers- 231 (6th)

Starters- Dani Dennis-Sutton (96), Enai White (58)

Reserves- Zuriah Fisher (52), Chaz Coleman (51), Yvan Kemajou (51), Dayshaun Burnett (50)

Penn State is in a similar spot to the DTs among their edge rushers with one star and then some question marks behind them. Dani Dennis-Sutton had the benefit of playing opposite Abdul Carter but still managed 45 QB pressures including 22 QB hits/sacks (Carter was at 66 and 23). It’s reasonable to think his numbers dip a little bit with a lot more double-teams coming his way but he is still a premier pass rusher and is 2nd team all-conference for Phil Steele.

Only two other edge players have 60+ career defensive snaps and none have started a game before. Steele projects Zuriah Fisher to start who was a top backup in 2023 before missing all of last season due to injury. The next most experienced option is Texas A&M transfer Enai White who was a nearly five-star recruit but has played just 136 snaps in 3 seasons of college ball. That’s it for experience but Penn State has recruited a little better here than at DT with six more freshmen four-stars ranked between a 0.89 and 0.91 in the 247 Sports Composite.

Linebackers- 219 (3rd)

Starters- Tony Rojas (87), Amare Campbell (68)

Reserves- Keon Wylie (64), Dominic DeLuca (64), Anthony Speca (53), LaVar Arrington II (51)

It’s time for another of everybody’s favorite moment of these previews: Phil Steele listing a player as a backup and then putting them on a preseason all-conference team. Penn State actually has two members here with Tony Rojas making 2nd team and North Carolina transfer Amare Campbell making the 4th team*.

The Rojas inclusion is a no-brainer. He finished last year 4th on the team in total tackles (67) and tied for 1st in interceptions (3). He misses too many tackles but the coverage stats mean he’s tremendous on passing downs as a former four-star recruit. Campbell started 14 games over the past two seasons at North Carolina and was an amazing blitzer as PFF credited him with 8 sacks and 23 QB pressures on just 59 pass rush opportunities.

The other candidates to start are former walk-on Dominic DeLuca who was last year’s #3 LB and Keon Wylie who played about the same number of snaps as Rojas in 2023 before missing all of last year due to injury. If you want to feel old, four-star true freshman LaVar Arrington II is on the squad.

*Although Steele bizarrely includes 4 LB on each of his teams so it’s almost more difficult to not have a LB make one of his preseason all-conference teams.

Cornerbacks- 334 (2nd)

Starters- AJ Harris (95), Elliot Washington (86), Zion Tracy (72)

Reserves- Daryus Dixson (55), Audavion Collins (53), Jahmir Joseph (52), Kenneth Woseley

Sometimes betting on talent pays off. Harris is a success story for the concept of these rankings as he was a near five-star recruit at Georgia who played fewer than 100 snaps as a true freshman before transferring to Penn State. He wound up securing a starting job right away in Happy Valley and finished 5th on the team in total defensive snaps on the way to 3rd team all-conference. Phil Steele bumps him up on the preseason list to 2nd team all-conference and my rankings have him as the #1 overall corner.

The other starters off last year’s squad are both gone but class of 2023 four-stars Elliot Washington and Zion Tracy were the primary backups last season and are likely to get promoted to the starting lineup. Both have played at least 400 career defensive snaps through two seasons and so are relatively known quantities that seem ready for a boost in playing time. A few four-star freshmen help round out the depth but it’s relatively light after the three starters with only one other player surpassing 51 career snaps.

Safeties- 223 (4th)

Starters- Zakee Wheatley (87), Dejuan Lane (76)

Reserves- King Mack (69), Vaboue Toure (49), Antoine Belgrave-Shorter (41)

Only one safety on the team has started a game or played 200 career defensive snaps before and it’s Zakee Wheatley. He started all 16 games for Penn State last season and tied for the team lead in interceptions with three and was third in pass break-ups with four. That’s a nice anchor to have at the FS spot and Wheatley is preseason 2nd team all-conference for Phil Steele.

The other starting spot is up for grabs with two main competitors for it. Steele gives the nod to former high four-star King Mack who transferred from Penn State to Alabama and now is back at Penn State (football Marfo). Last year’s #3 option looking for a promotion is Dejuan Lane who really struggled with his tackling but was solid in coverage. No other safeties on the roster have played more than 41 career defensive snaps. If there’s a weakness on this team then depth in the secondary might be it.

OVERALL TEAM- 2,521 (2nd)

Last season in my talent rankings there was a clear #1 (Ohio State) and then a pretty close second tier with Oregon and Penn State. The Buckeyes of course went on to win the national title while Penn State made the semifinals of the CFP and Oregon entered the tournament as the #1 team. This year there’s less of a gap between #1 Ohio State (not a spoiler if you’ve been paying attention) and #2 Penn State but a bigger gap between PSU and #3 Michigan. That tracks with the thought that Penn State is a serious national title contender this season.

All three axes that I track for the purposes of these rankings are a strength for Penn State. Recruiting talent? Their starters are 3rd. Experience? Their starters are 4th. On-field performance? Their starters are 2nd. This is a team with plenty of raw talent that has a bunch of experience and has proven results in college. That’s a winning formula.

The offense should be among the best in the country. The net trade-off of likely upgrades at WR combined with the downgrade at TE of losing Tyler Warren is close to zero. But Allar should be one of the best 10 to 15 QBs in the country and the combination of a likely Joe Moore finalist O-line plus the best running back duo in the country provides a high floor. If Penn State doesn’t run all over teams this season then something has gone seriously off the rails.

The defense may take a small step back after losing four of their top six in defensive snaps from last year including #3 overall pick Abdul Carter. Penn State is trusting in their development as none of my projected top eight defenders are transfers from this past offseason and only 1-2 transfers project as starters. The depth in the secondary is a little iffy so if anything dooms this Penn State team it might be injuries in the back half of the defense with underclassmen who aren’t ready to compete for a national title.

It makes complete sense though why this team is gearing up for a title run like Michigan and Washington did two years ago and Ohio State did last year. The non-conference is a joke (Nevada, FIU, Villanova) and they may outscore those three teams by a combined score of 150-10.

Penn State only plays half of the rest of the top seven in my rankings and only one of those games is on the road. Conference play starts out with a visit from Oregon but Penn State gets a bye to prepare beforehand. That’s their only game until November that is in any serious doubt.

The November schedule is much tougher with both teams getting a bye before the titanic showdown with Ohio State on 11/1. Home games against Indiana and Nebraska are likely the most challenging other ones remaining but PSU should still be double-digit favorites in both.

This season is likely national title or bust for Penn State. It’s impossible to imagine them missing the College Football Playoff barring a catastrophic string of injuries. A worst case regular season involves going 10-2 with losses to both Ohio State and Oregon that likely would mean missing the Big Ten title game. Even if that happens, it wouldn’t be a shock to see PSU pull an OSU from last year and win it all as the #8 seed.

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Top-10 Players (with position rank and overall conference rank)

1. QB Drew Allar, 100 (1st, 1st)
2. RB Nick Singleton, 97 (1st, 6th)
3. RB Kayton Allen, 97 (2nd, 7th)
4. ED Dani Dennis-Sutton, 96 (1st, 8th)
5. CB AJ Harris, 95 (1st, 10th)
6. S Zakee Wheatley, 87 (6th, 44th)
7. LB Tony Rojas, 87 (3rd, 45th)
8. DL Zane Durant, 86 (4th, 53rd)
9. S Elliot Washington, 86 (6th, 69th)
10. RT Nolan Rucci, 83 (11th, 83rd)

*Incoming transfer

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