The second half (okay, 40.7%) of the MLB season is upon us. This Reopening Day, as we should conceptualize and celebrate the Friday after the All-Star Break, the Seattle Mariners sit in playoff position. They hold a 1.5 game lead on the WC3, trailing the AL East’s glut of contenders narrowly and their rules-and-regression-flaunting rivals in Houston by a full hand’s worth. To solidify their position, Seattle will need to keep pace with the improvements of their opponents by the July 31st Trade Deadline.
To place themselves in commanding position, they’ll need to improve more than the rest.
To do that requires a major addition. But high-talent rentals haven’t been the Jerry Dipoto/Justin Hollander style. I would gladly welcome back Eugenio Suarez or add Josh Naylor, but this is an exercise in anticipating Seattle’s priorities. Trading for OF Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians would fit the club’s past modus operandi and would not preclude other additions. It also was a point of discussion on the recent Meet at the Mitt Podcast that’s spurred me to put my words where my mouth is.
A year ago, Seattle had perhaps the best deadline of any club, highlighted by adding Randy Arozarena. That came as Seattle eschewed the most discussed bat on the market, Chicago White Sox CF Luis Robert. Robert ended up not moving, and happens to be having an absolutely putrid 2025. The notable point, however, is that Seattle did not need a brilliant defensive CF with superstar tools but some offensive inconsistency (see, Oneil Cruz). What they could use, however, is a corner outfielder with stellar skills for that position and an offensive skillset that makes fans from the 80s weep with joy.
Why would Seattle trade for Steven Kwan?
Kwan is an excellent player highly akin to Arozarena’s overall ability to impact the game, albeit quite differently. A career 116 wRC+ and another 3-5 fWAR pace with a slash line of .285/.357/.396 and a strikeout rate in single digits highlights what the 27 year old is all about: consistency. The former Oregon State Beaver star is no stranger to hitting in the Pacific Northwest, even showcasing atypical pop in Seattle recently.
Kwan’s OBP is, poetically, identical to Arozarena’s on the year, with more singles and less slug. He could top the lineup or switch to the occasional J.P. Crawford role as the sparkplug at the bottom. He’s one of the best corner outfielders in the league, born and raised in the Bay Area. He’s played almost exclusively left field in the bigs, but given that his arm is one of the best and most accurate in MLB, he’d likely handle right field ably.
Kwan in right every day cuts out one of the most frequent platoons in their lineup. It allows Luke Raley to play first predominantly, and red-hot Dominic Canzone to cycle between DH alongside off-day Cal Raleigh and Arozarena. It nullifies the need for Dylan Moore to cover the outfield and allows him to be focused on the infield, or injured list. In cutting one platoon out, Seattle’s bench becomes more potent, as Canzone, Moore, Miles Mastrobuoni, and/or Donovan Solano will see their roles become more focused on advantageous deployments instead of daily line shifts. The lineup and defense both improve, and should continue to be so for the next few seasons with Kwan in arbitration through 2027.
While the hopeful return of Victor Robles in or around September could be a spark of a star-level player as he was late last year, Robles struggled early in 2025 and would rightfully be expected to have rust and recovery needs after such a significant injury. Seattle cannot wait for a possible healthy return from a streaky player two months from now as a cause not to act. If Robles is one of the better fourth outfielders in the sport heading into the playoffs, what a stellar situation for Seattle.
Would Cleveland trade Steven Kwan?
Mariners fans are no strangers to gluttonous juggernauts treating their rosters as presumed farm systems, so I empathize with Guardians rooters who may be irate. Much like the Arozarena deal, however, this is a suggestion based on a ballclub with a recent history of moving seemingly-central players in their prime if they see a way to maximize value and cut costs.
Chris Antonetti has been in the Cleveland organization since 1999, general manager and formally intended successor for longtime executive Mark Shapiro since 2010, and President of Baseball Operations since 2015. He has traded Corey Kluber, Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer, Josh Naylor, and Andrés Giménez in the past decade. I am not suggesting they will trade José Ramírez, dream as it might be to acquire him for Seattle. But I do believe Cleveland would move Kwan in a down season prior to having to pay the three-time Gold Glover and two-time All-Star his Arb 2 or Arb 3 salaries.
Kwan is already making $4.18 million this season in his first season of arbitration, and a jump next year will likely put him in eight figures. That’d be a perfectly reasonable sum, but it’d also be the second or third-highest sum of any Cleveland player, which currently only features a single player - J-Ram - above a $12 million total.
The Guardians aren’t fully removed from contention, but they are better situated for 2026 and beyond than for the rest of 2025. The Tigers have a 12 game lead on them, with Cleveland in fourth place behind the Twins and in a functional tie with the Royals. A 46-49 ballclub is not liable to outpace Detroit for the division, and they trail five other clubs who are also behind Seattle in the Wild Card hunt. It’s enough for 10.4% playoff odds, per FanGraphs, and 7.7% from PECOTA, which provide Seattle with 72.1% and 83.2% odds respectively. Short of a huge run out of the gate, something possible given a weak schedule to reopen the season, it’s reasonable to expect Cleveland to be sellers at month’s end.
Can Seattle afford to trade for Steven Kwan?
Absolutely. This isn’t really a question of the money, but in that regard, yes. His salary is currently minimal, and while it will grow in the coming seasons as outlined, compared to Cleveland’s pinchpenny ways, Seattle is more willing to utilize their resources reasonably. By next year, they’ll have plenty of time to cut payroll elsewhere if they’re so preoccupied.
More importantly is the talent sum. And to that end, absolutely Seattle can make this move. If Cleveland purely wants prospects, this is where a farm system engorged with promising potential plays perfectly. Arozarena is a good comp for what Kwan would command, though the case could be made one way or another as to who merits more. Randy’s bat is his calling card, ostensibly a tool better suited to aging than Kwan’s glovework and athleticism.
However, Kwan is just 27, while Arozarena was 29 a season ago. That deal cost Seattle three prospects - OF Aidan Smith, RHP Brody Hopkins, and a player to be named later that eventually became RHP Ty Cummings. Both Smith and Hopkins were top-150 types nationally, with rough edges that have remained prominent for Smith and become somewhat smoother for Hopkins. Cummings is a lower-variance depth arm, but that’s three potential big leaguers.
Arozarena is making it worthwhile, of course, as Kwan hopefully would. Another comparable is OF Adam Eaton, whose trade to the Washington Nationals came in one of the Chicago White Sox great sell-offs a decade ago. The cost for Eaton, which came prior to the season as the then-27 year old headed to D.C. with two years remaining, was seen as steep. Three RHPs, all top-100 caliber, in Dane Dunning, Lucas Giolito, and Reynaldo López. Giolito was the jewel of the bunch, as a top-10ish prospect in the sport whose expectations matched or exceeded any currently in MiLB. A warning, as ever, to prospect-huggers everywhere:
#WhiteSox now with @MLB-best 10 players on Top 100 Prospects list: 1, 8, 11, 23, 28, 30, 36, 59, 63 & 68: https://t.co/szeqXRgUHU pic.twitter.com/OUsSR5IrQM
— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) July 19, 2017
Seattle has farmhand talent for a deal of that level, but it’s of note that that haul has not been replicated. These deals - moving an outfielder with multiple years of control and high-level performance - don’t occur midseason like Randy with much frequency. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is the other nearest approximation, and his cost of C Agustín Ramírez, INF Jared Serna, and 3B/2B Abrahan Ramirez are a good plot point as well for us to consider. At the time of his trade, Ramírez was a top-100 hitter with some of the best power in the minors, a trait he’s carried forth to a 25-30 HR pace as a rookie in Miami. The others are more divisive prospects the Fish clearly liked, but were in the categories of “likely big leaguer closer to the majors” and “distant prospect who could be a gem or nothing.”
Seattle can definitely offer something like that.
What is the proposal?
Seattle Mariners receive: OF Steven Kwan
Cleveland Guardians receive: SS Felnin Celesten, 1B Tyler Locklear, RHP Ashton Izzi, OF Tai Peete
This deal is heavier on upside for Cleveland, whose depth is potent in a way M’s fans may find unfamiliar. Where Seattle has a dozen or so names of serious note - something to be excited about unequivocally - Cleveland has dozens of possible big leaguers. That breadth-accrual strategy is what makes this work without Seattle moving more than one top-100 area prospect. Celesten has long been touted, and has cracked a few Top-100 lists already at just age 19, but Seattle cannot be overly precious. In a system with Colt Emerson and newly drafted Nick Becker now sandwiching him developmentally, along with Cole Young already at the big league level, these are the sort of costs you are in position to start paying.
Peete is a similar player, conceptually, whose struggles to dominate or even stabilize at High-A are mitigated by immense youth and tools that still project exceptionally. Locklear also has spent a little time on some lists. Harry Ford doesn’t fit a Cleveland system with Bo Naylor behind the dish and Cooper Ingle torching Double-A, likely days or weeks from a Triple-A debut. Locklear, meanwhile, provides a potential partner to Kyle Manzardo that could take over the role David Fry has struggled to regain this season. Izzi offers a toolsy arm who is more potent than some of the other options, though feel free to work in someone from Brandyn Garcia down to Michael Morales or Jeter Martinez in this space if you think Cleveland will like one more.
Play around with the names as you’d like. Seattle has the good fortune of enough prospects in the caliber and archetype of each player that you can likely suit your own fancy. Beyond Ford, I’ve left off Michael Arroyo as he’s essentially a less-certain Travis Bazzana, Emerson and Montes as I think they’re too good to move for a deal short of a superstar package.
It’s my belief that this is a feasible outline for a Mariners-Guardians deal, specifically given the historical precedent set by Cleveland’s past sell deals and Seattle’s willingness to move high-upside talent for multiple years of big league performers.
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