Hayden Birdsong’s historically bad start last night compelled the San Francisco Giants to demote him after the game, and while the move had actually been predictable for a few weeks now — he had a 6.51 ERA / 6.38 FIP in his 6 starts prior — it’s still some bad news for both the player and the team.
Birdsong had the organization dreaming big on him last season and that continued with the new regime. He might not have lost the Mandate of Buster, but the bloom is off the rose. That’s not my opinion that his
major league prospects are toast, only that the belief that the team will step back from the belief that they have an ace waiting in the wings with proper development. Landen Roupp has continued to cement the in-house expectations for him with every inning, while Birdsong lost his equivalent over time.
We will almost certainly see Birdsong back up in the majors before the end of the season and perhaps in a meaningful role, too, but for now, it’s surprising to compare his seasons:
2024: 16 G 16 GS 72 IP 88 K 43 BB 1.39 WHIP 4.75 ERA 4.67 FIP
2025: 21 G 10 GS 65.2 IP 68 K 37 BB 1.49 WHIP 4.80 ERA 4.92 FIP
The development has been meager — possibly even nonexistent — if you’re just focusing on results. From a pitch perspective, it looks like he’s tweaked his pitch shape and added some spin to his fastball while maintaining its velocity. He has also become more slider-changeup this year versus his curveball-changeup last season, and that looks to be because he saved the curveball as an outpitch. It’s a good idea, but it helps to be in a pitcher’s count, and because of his command issues, he struggled to do get there.
According to Eno Sarris’s Location+ modeling (“Location+ looks at how well pitchers locate their pitches based on the count and the pitch type they’re throwing”), Birdsong is 14% worse than the league average and, if you set the minimum inning to 60, then Birdsong has the worst location at the worst time in all of MLB. Unsustainable for a full season, nevermind the innings wall he’s on course to hit.
I’m not ready to pencil him in as a key figure who makes critical starts or gets critical outs down the stretch, but the bloom isn’t so much off the rose that it’s an impossible dream.
For the major league roster, they’re now firmly in the “Oops! We Can’t Cover Innings!” tier of roster depth. Birdsong’s demotion was paired with Tristan Beck being sent down, too. Beck has been solid in two appearances following the All-Star break, but he was optioned because the Giants need fresh arms. Landen Roupp and Justin Verlander have been better than Hayden Birdsong to be sure, but they have been much worse on the road than in their home starts this season, and as nice as Beck’s long relief appearance was in Toronto the other day and his stint yesterday, the Giants need backups just in case Roupp and Verlander pitch to those road splits that I talked about in yesterday’s series preview.
Replacing them are Carson Seymour and Sean Hjelle, both pitchers who go multiple innings per appearance. Seymour is a starter in Triple-A and the only single-inning appearance he’s made in 2025 was against the White Sox upon his callup to the Giants.
Hjelle has struck out 12 and walked 0 in 10 IP for Triple-A Sacramento. For the moment, the investigation into the off-field allegations against him doesn’t appear to be impacting the team’s estimation of him or his on-field performance, though at this point it’s clear the Giants are in an all hands on deck situation with their rapidly shrinking pitching depth.
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