The Atlanta Braves appear to be exiting their competitive window with the current roster core and in this three-game home series at Truist Park they have the chance to alleviate some of that angst by sinking the San Francisco Giants to an even deeper depth of despair following an embarrassing sweep in Toronto.
Since starting the season 19-12, the Giants are 33-36 and find themselves on a 5-game losing streak as they bus into Cobb County. Since that hot start, they have only the #14 pitching staff
and sounds-better-than-it-is #24 offense. The culprit for the Giants not having such a great standing despite a great team ERA (3.60 is 3rd-best in MLB) is because they’re middle of the pack when it comes to walking hitters and striking them out. That lowers their overall “value” per Wins Above Replacement. As for the offense, well, we don’t need WAR to tell us how awful it is, both broadly and in splits. As Baseball Jeff puts it:
Since June 1, The Giants are hitting .199/.279/.334 (68 wRC+) with runners in scoring position. The batting average, on-base percentage, and wRC+ are the worst in baseball during that stretch. The slugging percentage is the third-worst mark.
— (@baseballjeff1.bsky.social) 2025-07-20T14:43:30.579Z
Another alarming “Since June 1” stat: Casey Schmitt has been the team’s best hitter (126 wRC+), if you set the minimum at 100 plate appearances. Christian Koss (148 wRC+), Brett Wisely (145), and Luis Matos (133) have been “better” in a third of the plate appearances, but just focusing on the regulars, you see how dire the situation has been for the past month and a half:
Casey Schmitt, 126 wRC+
Willy Adames, 123
Dominic Smith, 104
Matt Chapman (79 PA), 97
Mike Yastrzemski, 95
Heliot Ramos, 91
Rafael Devers, 88
Patrick Bailey, 88
Jung Hoo Lee, 82
Wilmer Flores, 79
You go through these names, though, and it becomes difficult to envision a turnout for the entire group. Schmitt might be punching a bit above his weight, sure, but Adames has essentially turned his season around. That’s Dom Smith’s ceiling. Heliot Ramos is in a second prolonged slump of the season. Rafael Devers has a disc issue with his back and is making a league/team adjustment so it’s okay to write him off for the rest of the season. If Patrick Bailey hits like this the rest of the way he will be one of the greatest catchers in the history of the world because of that defense. Given all the time he’s missed and given that the KBO is, effectively, Double-A, then this whole season is probably an adjustment year and we can write him off, too. Wilmer Flores never fully returned from knee surgery.
Chapman, Yastrzemski, and Ramos look like the three who should be expected to hit a little better the next 2.5 months, but will Adames and/or Schmitt be hitting better than league average at that point, too? It shouldn’t be that surprising to see this hitting group hit below league average. That’s the most likely outcome for any projection with these names.
Now, is that the case with Atlanta’s lineup? They’re just 18th in offense (according to wRC+) on the season, but going with the same “since May 1st” number I used for the Giants way up above, they’re actually a little worse: 96 wRC+ (19th). Their team slugging percentage of .389 during this span is 22nd. They hit in one of the friendliest hitters’ parks the world has ever seen!
They’re 43-55 on the season and will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2017.Alex Anthopolous’s long-term vision for this team has crumbled to the extent that he will be listening to offers for Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris II, and Sean Murphy “in the offseason.” It wasn’t long ago that he was getting praise for using a sharp farm system and strong financial resources to build and sustain a winner, locking up developed players or young, traded-for players to long-term deals. Now, a part of that plan has to be abandoned and all because it turns out you can’t project baseball very well, either.
Jumping back to the “Since June 1” split, only Sean Murphy has played well, with 7 HR in 99 PA and a 137 wRC+. Meanwhile, Albies (61 wRC+ in 170 PA) and Harris II (27 wRC+ in 146 PA) have been dreadful.
So, it’s a battle of disappointing teams, with Atlanta positioned to make the Giants feel a lot worse about their post-April struggles. The best the Giants can do is continue to put Atlanta out of its misery, and I think that’d be a very good thing if we’re all of the belief that the Giants need to hover around .500 on the road while winning most of their home games in order to be a playoff team. They’re currently 24-28 away from Oracle Park. Atlanta is just 25-24 at home, having dropped 7 of 9 in their last homestand. The Giants swept them back at the beginning of June which included a pair of walk-offs.
Series overview
Who: San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves
Where: Truist Park | “Atlanta,” Georgia
When: Monday & Tuesday at 4:15pm PT, Wednesday at 9:15am PT
National broadcasts: MLB Network simulcast (Wednesday)
Projected starters
Monday: Hayden Birdsong (RHP 4-3, 4.11 ERA) vs. Bryce Elder (RHP 3-6, 5.65 ERA)
Tuesday: Landen Roupp (RHP 6-6, 3.27 ERA) vs. Davis Daniel (RHP 1.80 ERA 5 IP 6 K)
Wednesday: Justin Verlander (RHP 0-8, 4.99 ERA) vs. Spencer Strider (4-7, 3.59 ERA)
Where they stand
Giants, 52-48 (3rd in NL West), 408 RS / 400 RA | Last 10: 4-6 | 2.5 GB WC3
Atlanta, 43-55 (4th in NL East), 406 RS / 405 RA | Last 10: 4-6 | 10.5 GB WC3
Braves to watch
Ronald Acuña Jr.: A year out from ACL surgery and he’s back to crushing baseballs like an All-Star. Indeed, he was one of the starting outfielders for the National League squad. He’s slugging .610 on the season! He’s making plays like this in the field!
Spencer Strider: A year out from UCL surgery and he looks to be back on track to the 20-game winner strikeout machine from 2023. He hit a speed bump at the start of the season with an IL stint for a hamstring strain, and when the Giants saw him earlier in the year in San Francisco, it was just his 5th start in 2025. But literally the start after the one in Oracle, his last 7 starts, he’s struck out 58 in 42.2 IP with a 2.53 ERA (2.41 FIP).
Matt Olson & Sean Murphy: Olson did well in the Home Run Derby and has turned his season around from a power perspective since the middle of May. On May 15, he was slashing .214/.337/.389. Since then, .299/.383/.540. Meanwhile, Murphy his .193 all of last season, but reports of his demise at the plate were exaggerated. He’s slugging .519 in 2025.
Giants to watch
Birdsong, Roupp, and Verlander: The starting pitchers figure to be the key to the Giants’ success in this series because they’ll be the ones setting the bar for how many runs the pitiful offense will have to scratch across. By ERA, Birdsong has been a bit better on the road (3.94 vs. 4.28 at home), while Roupp & Verlander have been substantially worse.
Roupp: 1.80 home (45 IP) | 4.56 road (51.1 IP)
Verlander: 4.50 home (46 IP) | 5.67 road (33.1 IP)
Willy Adames: He’s got 5 home runs in 70 career plate appearances at Truist Park, boosting his triple slash to .266/.319/.563. Over his last 76 appearances, he’s played 13 of 19 games on the road, amassing 5 home runs to boost his triple slash to .254/.342/.552. It sure was nice to see him have a 2-home run game in Toronto, but hopefully, his next dinger comes with at least one other runner on base!
Camilo Doval: This morning, Grant Brisbee wondered what opportunities would be available to the Giants should they become trade deadline sellers. About the only player who makes sense to be moved is Doval. So, on the one hand, what if he comes in and saves all three games? That’d be quite the throwcase. On the other hand, he hasn’t pitched since July 13th, so he might be a little rusty, which could be important if the Giants are trying to hold on to a 1-run lead.
Dominic Smith: Hey, look, you might not think about Smith when you think about the Giants’ offense, but he’s got 4 home runs in 99 career PA at Truist Park.
Prediction time
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