The dust is settled, the text messaging plans are on fire somewhere and the trade deadline is over. The Phillies had needs that needed to be addressed and address them they did. The team added perhaps the top relief arm available on the market while also adding an outfielder to the conversation that instantly upgrades the entire group (take that for what you will), as well as trading for a mildly intriguing arm to stockpile and try to rebuild into a useful bullpen/starting piece.
Now that we see what
they have done, let’s reset the roster in terms of how they are going to move forward in their quest to make the playoffs.
The starting pitching is still the leader
Without a doubt, this team’s strength is still the starting pitching. While other teams were scrambling around, trying (sometimes unsuccessfully) to add a starter to their current crop, the Phillies are just waiting to get healthy. Once Aaron Nola is healthy, this will be a team with six starting pitchers capable of getting them to the finish line, each able to go 5-6 innings on any given night. Think about that when other teams hunting a playoff berth acquire JP Sears and celebrate that move.
The National League playoff picture being set will come down to how many teams are able to get their pitching staff in order enough to get quality starts down the line. Some teams are barely able to keep theirs healthy, some are barely able to keep them on the mound for five innings, let along throw meaningful innings past the sixth or seventh. At some point, that amount of stress on the bullpen is going to catch up with teams in the end.
A playoff quality bullpen
For quite a while prior to the deadline, we had heard whispers of the team’s top relief arm coming from someone in the current rotation. Playoff teams don’t need five starters in October, so a “demotion” to the bullpen would be an addition for a team like the Phillies. Sugarcoating the fact that they have struggled on the back end is silly; they just aren’t very good.
Until now.
The acquisition of Jhoan Duran gives them a foursome in Duran, Orion Kerkering, Matt Strahm and David Robertson that should hold up with any other in the game. Pair that with whoever it is that is joining them from the rotation (Jesus Luzardo? Nola?) and suddenly, the biggest weakness on the team doesn’t feel like a weakness. It feels like a playoff caliber bullpen.
And let’s not forget: to even get to October, the team will have to navigate the next two months of the season against competition reinforced by the trade deadline. The bullpen will have to perform - and will have its own reinforcement in Jose Alvarado. While that is small solace when coupled with the fact that his year ends after game 162, it shouldn’t go without notice that a team cannot play in October without getting there first. Alvarado is going to play a big role in helping shepherd the team’s bullpen these final two months.
The lineup is better. Kind of.
Adding a bat at the deadline felt like something of a necessity. By this point in the season, expecting improvement from someone like Max Kepler or Johan Rojas is fool’s errand. There is enough of a sample size that we should even be questioning if they should be in the current roster or not. So, upgrading the outfield was seen as something the team had to do. In getting Harrison Bader, the center field spot is now better...and could lead to some dominoes falling to improve left field as well.
The other big question about the team’s outfield is what they are going to do with left field, Kepler specifically. Dave Dombrowski answered that question a bit when talking about their deadline moves on Wednesday.
“We think he’s ready to play at the big-league level,” Dombrowski said. “We could bring him up. If we do bring him up, he needs to play a lot. I’m not sure that we’re in a position to do that at this point today. But he’s not somebody that we would hesitate to bring up, if we decided that was the right thing to do.
“He, like (Andrew) Painter, like a lot of those youngsters, they can use more development time. It will never hurt them. When they’re going to get here, they’re going to have to make some adjustments. But he’s also in a position where we think he’s ready to do that when called upon.”
That doesn’t sound like Crawford is in the immediate plans to help the big league club, but would come up if something should befall one of the current members of the outfield.
For now, they have added a player with a quality bat and superior glove to the mix while subtracting (in theory) Rojas, who is quite simply not a major league baseball player. That makes for a better lineup.
They just need to do it in October.
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