Strongest El Niño Since 1950 Expected to Influence Global Temperatures, Potentially Making 2026 Warmest Year on Record
The current El Niño event, characterized by a warming in the Pacific Ocean, has become the strongest since record-keeping began in 1950, surpassing the 2015-16 record. Ocean temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region of the Pacific, near the equator, have reached 3.5°C above average, significantly exceeding the 2°C threshold for a strong El Niño. This phenomenon is contributing to a temporary increase in global temperatures. Berkeley Earth, a climate analysis organization, initially forecast a 2.5% chance of 2026 being the warmest year on record in May, but this probability has since surged to 96% as El Niño developed. The effects of El Niño on global temperatures typically manifest about three months after its peak, which is projected for November or December. While El Niño is a significant factor, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Secretary-General Celeste Saulo noted that El Niño releases heat already stored in the ocean, rather than adding new heat to the planet. This stored heat is primarily attrib...
