El Niño Expected to Bring Above-Normal Rainfall to California This Winter
A powerful El Niño event is developing, with models predicting significantly above-normal precipitation for California from December 2026 through February 2027. The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) projects a 40% to 70% increase in rainfall along the California coast, with San Francisco potentially receiving over 20 inches of rain during this period. NOAA's Climate Forecast System and other models from Canada and Europe align in forecasting wetter-than-average conditions. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific are nearly 5°F (2.6°C) above normal as of August 5, 2026, the warmest on record for this time of year. This east-based El Niño is expected to drive stronger Pacific storms and higher coastal water levels, increasing the likelihood of flooding during king tides and windstorms. 
