El Niño Expected to Bring Warmer Winter to New York, NOAA Predicts
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter outlook for December 2026 through February 2027, highlighting the significant influence of a strong El Niño on U.S. weather patterns. According to NOAA, New York and much of the northern United States are likely to experience above-average temperatures this winter. The probability of warmer-than-normal conditions in New York is estimated at 50% to 60%. Precipitation forecasts indicate equal chances of above- or below-normal levels in western and central New York, while eastern parts of the state, including New York City, have a 33% to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation. NOAA notes that while wetter conditions are expected in some areas, this does not necessarily translate to increased snowfall.
