International Affairs Forum Analyzes 'Great-Power Utility Trap' and Limits of Security Assurances for Smaller States
The International Affairs Forum has published an analysis titled 'The Great-Power Utility Trap,' which examines the distinction between a smaller state's strategic value to a great power and an unlimited security guarantee. The article, authored by Osama S. Qatrani, argues that treaties are tested under extreme pressure and that commitments are interpreted through the lens of interests, capabilities, escalation risks, and survival calculations of the enforcing states. It uses Ukraine's experience with the 1994 Budapest Memorandum as a key example, noting that while the memorandum reaffirmed respect for Ukraine's sovereignty, it was not a NATO-style mutual-defense treaty. The analysis also draws lessons from Georgia, Armenia, and the Gulf states, illustrating how states can become strategically exposed when their alignment is strong enough to provoke an adversary but insufficient to provide full protection. The article emphasizes that supporting a state in war is not the same as entering the war on its beha... 
