U.S. Core Inflation Rate Forecasted to Rise in October, Driven by Energy Spillover and Goods Prices
The U.S. is anticipating an increase in both headline and core inflation for October, with forecasts suggesting a 0.3% month-over-month rise for both metrics. This projection comes amidst early signs of an energy price spillover, which is expected to continue impacting inflation. Core goods prices have shown acceleration over the past three months, with notable pressures in imported categories such as apparel, footwear, toys, recreational goods, and IT equipment. Additionally, motor vehicle parts and equipment prices, influenced by tariff pressures, are contributing to increases in used car prices. Services inflation is not expected to provide significant relief, with housing prices continuing to tick upward. Core services excluding housing, often referred to as 'Super core,' have historically not declined on a year-over-year basis, further indicating persistent inflationary pressures. The absence of October 2025 data due to a government shutdown will prevent the release of year-over-year CPI data for Octo...
