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Analysis-Why El Niño's promise of a quieter hurricane season may not guarantee good news for insurers

Analysis-Why El Niño's promise of a quieter hurricane season may not guarantee good news for insurers

By Niket Nishant, Ashitha Shivaprasad and Manya Saini July 27 (Reuters) - For insurers, the periodic El Niño climate phenomenon has traditionally lowered the risk of costly Atlantic hurricanes, but decades of population growth along coastal areas and rising property values are forcing them to
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El Niño May Reduce Hurricanes but Pose New Risks for Insurers

El Niño May Reduce Hurricanes but Pose New Risks for Insurers

The El Niño climate phenomenon, marked by warmer-than-average Pacific Ocean temperatures, typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity. U.S. government scientists predict a below-average 2026 hurricane season with 8-14 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes. However, decades of coastal development and rising property values have increased the financial risks for insurers, even during quieter seasons. For example, Hurricane Andrew in 1992, during an El Niño year, caused catastrophic damage despite fewer storms overall. Insurers are now focusing on storm landfall locations and property values rather than storm frequency to assess risks. Additionally, El Niño is linked to increased rainfall in the southern U.S., raising concerns about flooding and related damages.
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El Niño's Impact on Hurricane Season Raises Concerns for Insurers

El Niño's Impact on Hurricane Season Raises Concerns for Insurers

El Niño's Impact on Hurricane Season Raises Concerns for Insurers
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Severe Convective Storms Overtake Hurricanes as Top Weather Risk for Homeowners

Severe Convective Storms Overtake Hurricanes as Top Weather Risk for Homeowners

New research indicates that tornadoes, hail, and powerful winds linked to climate change now pose a greater threat to homeowners than hurricanes and other forms of extreme weather. In 2025, insurance payouts from severe convective storms (SCS) surpassed those from cyclones, making them the costliest insured natural disasters globally. The U.S. is particularly affected, with significant financial losses due to the concentration of insured properties.
Factlore Factlore
What is El Niño and how does it impact hurricane season?

What is El Niño and how does it impact hurricane season?

A clear explanation of the El Niño climate phenomenon and how its atmospheric effects, like wind shear, typically lead to a less active Atlantic hurricane season.
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Severe Convective Storms Surpass Hurricanes as Top Weather Risk for Homeowners

Severe Convective Storms Surpass Hurricanes as Top Weather Risk for Homeowners

A recent study by climate risk modeling firm First Street reveals that severe convective storms (SCS) have become the costliest insured natural disasters globally, surpassing hurricanes and other cyclones in 2025. These storms, which include tornadoes, hail, and severe winds, accounted for one-third of global natural disaster economic losses in 2025, totaling $82 billion. Of this, $68 billion in losses were concentrated in the U.S., where the high density of insured residential, commercial, and industrial properties amplifies the financial impact. Hail is identified as the primary driver of insurance payouts, followed by severe winds. The study highlights that SCS are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change, posing significant challenges for homeowners and insurance companies alike. The Midwest and northern Texas are particularly affected, with Illinois and Ohio identified as high-risk areas due to their urban density and valuable real estate.
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North Carolina Faces Rising Threat from Severe Convective Storms Impacting Homeowners

North Carolina Faces Rising Threat from Severe Convective Storms Impacting Homeowners

Recent research by climate risk modeling firm First Street highlights that severe convective storms (SCS) now pose a greater threat to homeowners than traditional weather events like hurricanes and floods. In 2025, insurance payouts from SCS surpassed those from cyclones, marking them as the costliest insured natural disasters globally. The U.S. is particularly affected, with $68 billion of the $82 billion in global losses concentrated in the country. These storms, characterized by short-duration but high-impact events such as hail, wind, and tornadoes, are becoming more frequent due to climate change. North Carolina, along with states like Illinois, Ohio, and Georgia, is identified as being at high risk due to its dense real estate areas, particularly in cities like Charlotte.
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El Niño Phenomenon Predicted to Intensify, Impacting Global Weather Patterns

El Niño Phenomenon Predicted to Intensify, Impacting Global Weather Patterns

The El Niño weather phenomenon, currently developing in the Pacific Ocean, is expected to become one of the strongest on record, according to climate researchers. This event is anticipated to cause significant temperature increases, leading to severe droughts in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in Eastern Africa. The African Development Bank has highlighted the potential for massive agricultural disruptions, particularly in countries like Sudan, South Sudan, and Somalia, where maize prices could double, leading to food insecurity and mass migration. The phenomenon is also expected to exacerbate existing drought conditions in the United States, potentially leading to a 'mini Dust Bowl' scenario.
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Urgent Call to Action: Historic El Niño Event Predicted

Urgent Call to Action: Historic El Niño Event Predicted

A coalition of scientists, meteorologists, and public figures has issued a stark warning about an impending El Niño event, predicted to be the most intense in recorded history. According to the letter, ocean temperatures in the central eastern Pacific are expected to rise by 5 to 7.5°F (3-4°C), peaking in October 2026. This warming is anticipated to exacerbate global climate conditions, leading to increased flooding, wildfires, storms, droughts, and deadly heatwaves. The event is also expected to severely impact food supply chains, crops, and power grids. The letter highlights the urgency of preparing for this large-scale climate emergency, which could have catastrophic consequences if left unaddressed. The previous strongest El Niño, recorded in 1877, resulted in 40 million deaths worldwide due to famine, and this event is projected to surpass it in intensity.
USA Today USA Today
Wildfires in Oregon and Washington impact air quality. See where

Wildfires in Oregon and Washington impact air quality. See where

Over a million acres were set ablaze in Oregon. As wildfires in the region continue, air quality in certain areas will be impacted.
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Super El Niño Predicted to Intensify Commodity Market Strains Amid Global Weather Disruptions

Super El Niño Predicted to Intensify Commodity Market Strains Amid Global Weather Disruptions

Super El Niño Predicted to Intensify Commodity Market Strains Amid Global Weather Disruptions
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El Niño's Intensifying Impact Raises Global Climate Concerns

El Niño's Intensifying Impact Raises Global Climate Concerns

The current El Niño event is setting unprecedented records for sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, with scientists predicting it could become the strongest on record. This natural climate pattern, which involves the warming of seawater, is expected to significantly influence global weather patterns over the next 12 to 18 months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reported that water temperatures in the El Niño region have reached unprecedented levels for July. The phenomenon is anticipated to exacerbate global temperatures, potentially making 2026 the warmest year on record. The event is already affecting the U.S., with unusual heat and humidity in California and a suppression of Atlantic hurricane activity.