Strong El Niño Expected to Significantly Impact U.S. Crop Yields in 2027
A very strong El Niño event is currently underway, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicating an over 83% chance of it persisting through March 2027 and exceeding the intensity of any El Niño since 1950. This climate pattern is expected to bring above-normal rainfall to the southern Plains and milder conditions to the north during the winter of 2026-2027. Historically, strong El Niño winters have led to varied impacts on U.S. crop yields in the subsequent year. Winter wheat in the Plains states, including South Dakota, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Colorado, has averaged significantly above normal yields (12-18% higher). Cotton in Texas has also seen an average increase of about 10%. Conversely, corn yields in the Southeast have tended to be lower, with Atlantic states experiencing 9-11% below-normal yields. Soybean impacts are mixed, with some Midwestern states seeing gains while others in the South experience slight declines. The El Niño pattern typically dissipates by the following summer...
