U.S. Winter Wheat Faces Historic Lows Amid Severe Drought Conditions
The U.S. winter wheat crop is experiencing historically poor conditions, with 40% of the crop rated as poor or very poor, according to the USDA. This marks one of the rare instances since 1998 where such a high percentage of the crop has been in poor condition. The situation is attributed to a combination of severe drought and freeze damage. Drought coverage across the lower 48 states exceeded 60% for several weeks, peaking at nearly 63% in April 2026, as reported by the U.S. Drought Monitor. Winter wheat production is forecast to drop by 25% compared to last year, with the harvested-to-planted ratio at a historically low 67.9%. States such as Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas are among the hardest hit, with over half of their winter wheat crops rated poor or very poor.