OECD Warns of Global Recession Risks Amid Prolonged Iran Conflict
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) has issued a warning about the potential for a global recession if the ongoing conflict between the U.S. and Iran extends into 2027. The OECD's latest Economic Outlook outlines a scenario where prolonged disruption could reduce global GDP growth to 2.1% this year, down from 3.4% in 2025. This situation could push some economies, particularly emerging ones, into recession due to energy shortages and rising prices of industrial inputs like fertilizers and helium. The report highlights the challenges for policymakers who might face recession risks if they raise interest rates too quickly to combat inflation. The OECD also presents a less severe scenario where a peace agreement could lead to a decline in oil prices, resulting in a more moderate impact on global growth. 
