U.S. Consumers' Unemployment Expectations Worsen Despite Strong Jobs Report
U.S. consumers' expectations regarding unemployment deteriorated in August, according to a survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher a year from now increased by 1.6 percentage points, reaching 44.4%. This marks the highest reading for this metric since April 2020. While the perceived likelihood of losing one's job in the next 12 months slightly decreased to 13.8%, the perceived probability of finding a new job after a loss fell by 0.8 percentage points to 45.4%. These sentiments contrast with the surprisingly strong August jobs report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which indicated 162,000 new job additions and a steady unemployment rate of 4.1%. Inflation expectations remained largely stable, with median expectations at 3.6% for the one-year horizon and 3% for the five-year horizon. 
