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Strong El Niño Predicted to Bring Warmer, Drier Winter to Pacific Northwest

Strong El Niño Predicted to Bring Warmer, Drier Winter to Pacific Northwest

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reported a greater than 90% likelihood of a very strong El Niño event developing during the fall and winter of 2026. This climate phenomenon, characterized by weakened trade winds and warmer ocean temperatures in the Pacific, is expected to bring significant changes to weather patterns in the Pacific Northwest. According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, the region is likely to experience warmer and drier-than-average conditions throughout the winter season. Additionally, the reduced upwelling of cold ocean water associated with El Niño could disrupt marine ecosystems, potentially impacting fisheries. A diminished snowpack is also anticipated in the spring, which could have long-term implications for water resources and agriculture in the area. (Source: KATU, 2026-08-23 14:00:04 GMT)
Wilmington Star-News Wilmington Star-News
Why the 2026 hurricane season is so quiet; what it means for NC coast

Why the 2026 hurricane season is so quiet; what it means for NC coast

The 2026 hurricane season is the slowest this century, but experts warn that local storms could still form.
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2026 El Niño May Become the Strongest on Record

2026 El Niño May Become the Strongest on Record

A powerful El Niño event is rapidly developing and is projected to become one of the strongest on record, potentially surpassing benchmarks set since 1950. This intensification is evidenced by record-breaking July sea-surface temperatures, which were 2.1°C above average, exceeding previous highs from 2023. This significant warming in the equatorial Pacific is already influencing global weather patterns, notably by suppressing Atlantic hurricane activity. The impacts of this strong El Niño are expected to extend through the fall and winter seasons across the United States, leading to significant shifts in temperature and precipitation. Forecasters anticipate warmer-than-average conditions for much of the U.S. and potentially wetter conditions in the southern regions, while drier conditions may be observed in the Pacific Northwest. While the exact ranking of the El Niño's strength is a subject of scientific focus, its practical consequences for weather-related hazards, agriculture, water resources, and energ...
Rapid Read Rapid Read
NOAA Releases Winter Forecast Amidst Strengthening El Niño, Predicting Significant US Weather Shifts

NOAA Releases Winter Forecast Amidst Strengthening El Niño, Predicting Significant US Weather Shifts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter weather forecast for the United States, indicating that a rapidly strengthening El Niño is expected to significantly influence conditions across the country. This El Niño event is projected to become a 'Super El Niño' by October and has a nearly 70% chance of becoming the strongest on record by year-end. While a historically strong El Niño increases the odds of certain weather patterns, it does not guarantee historically intense impacts. Typically, El Niño shifts the jet stream southward, leading to more storms and wetter, cooler weather in the southern US, while northern regions tend to experience drier and warmer conditions. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center's December through February forecasts show these characteristic El Niño patterns, with above-average temperatures likely across the northern tier and wetter-than-normal conditions expected in a wide expanse of the US, including Southern California, the entire southern t...
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Record-Breaking El Niño Expected to Bring Extreme Global Weather

Record-Breaking El Niño Expected to Bring Extreme Global Weather

The 2026 El Niño event is on track to become the strongest on record, with global sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region currently 2.6°C (4.68°F) above the 30-year average, according to the Climate Brink dashboard (AFP, 2026). Forecasts predict the anomaly could peak at 3.9°C (7.02°F) by November, surpassing the 2015 El Niño. This phenomenon, which occurs when trade winds weaken and warm water shifts eastward in the Pacific, is expected to exacerbate extreme weather patterns worldwide. Experts warn that 2027 could become the hottest year on record, with global temperatures potentially reaching 1.76°C (3.17°F) above pre-industrial levels. The event is already causing severe droughts and wildfires in regions like Indonesia, where hundreds of thousands of hectares have burned during an extended dry season.
USA Today USA Today
Hurricane forecasters watch 'unusual' activity in Atlantic

Hurricane forecasters watch 'unusual' activity in Atlantic

A tropical storm could soon form near Portugal, in the northeastern Atlantic. It's an odd location, experts say.
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Greenland Meltwater Intensifies European Heatwaves, Study Finds

Greenland Meltwater Intensifies European Heatwaves, Study Finds

A new study, currently undergoing peer review, indicates that the surge of cold meltwater from Greenland into the North Atlantic is significantly altering ocean temperatures and shifting the jet stream. This phenomenon is contributing to more frequent and intense heatwaves across Western Europe and the Mediterranean. Marilena Oltmanns, from the UK’s National Oceanography Centre and one of the study's authors, states that this newly identified 'atmospheric bridge' played a major role in the unprecedented heatwaves experienced this summer. The research suggests that as Greenland's ice loss accelerates, Europe could face heatwaves that are more extreme than current climate models predict. Over the past three decades, high-pressure ridges, which lead to sunny skies and extreme heat, have been forming more frequently over Europe due to waviness in the jet stream. This allows warm air from the central Atlantic and Sahara desert to flow into these ridges, exacerbating heat conditions. The study links these ridges...
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El Niño Increases Likelihood of Wet Winter in Northern California

El Niño Increases Likelihood of Wet Winter in Northern California

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its seasonal outlook, indicating an increased probability of a wetter-than-normal winter for Northern California. This projection is driven by a potentially historic El Niño event, which is expected to significantly influence global weather patterns. The latest forecast, released on August 20, 2026, highlights a shift from last month's 'equal chances' outlook to a stronger likelihood of above-average precipitation across the state. December, January, and February, traditionally the wettest months in Northern California, are expected to see this impact. However, forecasters caution that the probability of a wet winter currently ranges between 30% and 50%, leaving room for variability, including the possibility of dry conditions. The El Niño pattern is anticipated to be the strongest since at least 1950, further increasing the odds of a wet winter for the region.
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Severe Storms Threaten Northeast with Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds

Severe Storms Threaten Northeast with Flash Flooding and Damaging Winds

The Northeast region of the U.S. is bracing for severe storms, with over 32 million people along the I-95 corridor from Connecticut to Virginia under a flash flood threat. NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has issued a widespread Level 2 out of 4 risk for flash flooding in this area. Specifically, 17 million individuals across parts of New Jersey and New York City face a higher Level 3 out of 4 risk. These storms are expected to bring drenching downpours, with rainfall rates potentially reaching up to 2 inches per hour. A Tornado Watch is also in effect for over 15 million people in Delaware, District of Columbia, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Virginia until 10 p.m. ET. The cold front responsible for this severe weather is moving east from the Ohio Valley and is anticipated to stall over the Northeast coast and Mid-Atlantic through Thursday evening. Widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 3 inches are possible from North Carolina up to coastal New Jersey, with localized amounts of 3 to 5 inches.
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Strengthening El Niño Could Bring Historic Impacts to Southern California

Strengthening El Niño Could Bring Historic Impacts to Southern California

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has forecasted a greater than 90% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño event during the fall and winter of 2026-2027. This could result in one of the wettest winters in years for Southern California, with a 69% likelihood of exceeding the strength of previous El Niño events dating back to 1950. El Niño occurs when ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific are unusually warm, which can significantly alter global weather patterns. Southern California is preparing for potential heavy rainfall, flash floods, and mudslides, particularly in burn scar areas. Officials are already clearing debris basins and reservoirs to mitigate risks. Residents are urged to prepare their homes and properties ahead of the storm season. (Source time: not specified)
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NOAA's Fall Forecast: Warm Nationwide With a Wet Southern Tilt

NOAA's Fall Forecast: Warm Nationwide With a Wet Southern Tilt

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has issued its forecast for the fall season (September-November), indicating a nationwide trend towards warmer-than-average temperatures across nearly all 50 states. The Pacific Northwest is expected to experience the most significant warmth. In terms of precipitation, a divergence is predicted: the Southwest and Southeast regions are likely to be wetter than usual, while the Northeast and Pacific Northwest are forecasted to be drier. A central band of states, including Ohio, Tennessee, and Missouri, are in a 'toss-up' zone with no strong lean towards wetter or drier conditions. This extended warmth may carry over from the summer, impacting energy demands and outdoor activities. The differing precipitation patterns present distinct challenges and opportunities for agriculture, water resource management, and wildfire risk assessment across various regions. Farmers will need to adapt to potential changes in crop cycles and water availability. Water m...
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Study Links Ocean Eddies to Hurricane Rapid Intensification

Study Links Ocean Eddies to Hurricane Rapid Intensification

A research project analyzed 15 years of atmospheric and oceanic data to explore the relationship between ocean eddies and hurricane rapid intensification. The study found that 60% of hurricanes with rapid intensification were associated with ocean eddies, while 25% showed neither phenomenon. Rapid intensification was defined as an increase in wind speed of 30 knots or more. The research highlighted that upper ocean heat content (OHC) is a better predictor of hurricane intensification than pre-storm sea surface temperature (SST). Ocean eddies, characterized by their deep vertical vortex, play a significant role in maintaining warm water circulation, which fuels hurricanes. A strong correlation (r-value of 0.79) was observed between SST changes and rapid intensification, emphasizing the importance of oceanic conditions in hurricane development.