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National Hurricane Center Monitors Multiple Tropical Threats in Atlantic and Pacific Amid El Niño Conditions

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is currently tracking several areas for potential tropical development across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. In the Atlantic, two systems are being monitored, though neither has a high probability of developing into a tropical depression within the next seven days. One trough of low pressure southwest of the Azores is showing some organization but faces marginally favorable conditions for further development. Another low-pressure area east of Bermuda, designated AL98, is no longer expected to develop due to hostile winds and dry air, according to AccuWeather lead hurricane expert Alex DaSilva. Conversely, the Pacific basin shows higher chances of development. A disturbance, EP98, southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, has an 80 percent chance of forming a tropical depression within seven days. East of EP98, another low-pressure area is likely to form a tropical depression late this weekend or early next week, also with an 80 percent chance of cyclone formatio...

Tropical Depression Odds Drop Near Bermuda

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has reported decreasing chances for a tropical depression to form east of Bermuda. Initially, the trough of low pressure had a 40% chance of development within two to seven days, but this has now been reduced to 20%. Forecasters noted that the system has become less organized, with limited potential for further development. The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30, has been unusually quiet this year due to a strong El Niño suppressing storm activity. If no hurricane forms by September 21, 2026, it will set a record for the latest arrival of the season's first hurricane, according to AccuWeather.

El Niño Suppresses Atlantic Hurricanes, Forecast Updated

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been notably subdued due to the persistent influence of El Niño, which has created unfavorable conditions for storm development. AccuWeather meteorologists have revised their forecast, now predicting 1-3 hurricanes for the season, with one or two potentially reaching major hurricane status (winds of at least 111 mph). While no hurricanes have formed so far, the season's second half remains, and tropical activity could still emerge in areas such as the Gulf of Mexico and near Bermuda. Two systems are currently being monitored: one near Bermuda with a medium chance of development and another east of Florida that may evolve into a tropical depression or storm by the weekend. The next named storm, if it forms, will be called Fay. Hurricane season officially ends on November 30. Source time: Thu, 17 Sep 2026 16:00:00 GMT.

Invest 98L Monitored Amid Quiet Atlantic Hurricane Season

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has designated a new area of interest in the open Atlantic as Invest 98L. This development comes during what is being called the quietest start to an Atlantic hurricane season since the satellite era began in 1960. So far, only five named storms have formed, with no hurricanes recorded. Invest 98L currently has low odds of development over the next two days, but environmental conditions may become more favorable for tropical development in the coming days. The system is located in the subtropical Atlantic, outside the Main Development Region, which is unusual for this time of year. Forecast models are split, with some predicting significant development while others show little to no activity. The system is expected to either turn north into the open Atlantic or remain stationary for several days. (Source: Fox Weather, 16 Sep 2026, 15:51 GMT)

2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Remains Quiet

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet, with no hurricanes reported as of September 16. NOAA forecasts for this season predicted below-average activity due to strong El Niño conditions, which suppress tropical storm formation. Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season averages 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. This year, NOAA adjusted its predictions to 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, and up to two major hurricanes. If no hurricanes form by November 30, it will be only the third time in recorded history that the season ends without a hurricane.

El Niño May Bring Wetter Winter to U.S. Southeast, California

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has been notably quiet, with only five named storms and no hurricanes reported so far, according to the National Hurricane Center. Experts attribute this to the strengthening El Niño conditions, which have a 90% chance of becoming a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter, per the Climate Prediction Center. El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), typically suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity while increasing storm activity in the eastern and central Pacific. Meteorologists predict that El Niño could lead to wetter-than-average conditions in California and the U.S. Southeast this winter, potentially alleviating drought conditions in these regions. Additionally, El Niño years are often associated with higher global temperatures, and 2027 could potentially become the warmest year on record due to residual heat energy from the current El Niño phase.

Atlantic Hurricane Season May Break 175-Year Record

The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season is on track to set a historic record, as no hurricanes have formed in the basin as of September 17, 2026. This matches the latest first hurricane formation date on record, which occurred on September 17, 1941. If no hurricanes develop by tomorrow, 2026 will officially set a new record for the latest first hurricane of the season. Contributing factors include a strong El Niño event, which increases vertical wind shear over the Atlantic, and repeated intrusions of the Saharan Air Layer, a dry and dusty air mass that inhibits storm formation. Despite the quiet season, meteorologists caution that hurricane season officially lasts until November 30, leaving time for potential storm development.

Tropical Waves Bring Convection Across Atlantic

The National Hurricane Center has reported multiple tropical waves and weather systems affecting the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico regions. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic, located along 37W, is moving westward at 10 knots, bringing scattered moderate to strong convection between 29W and 42W. Another tropical wave in the central Caribbean, along 73W, is producing scattered moderate convection from Haiti to northern South America. Additionally, a stationary front near the NW Bahamas and Florida Keys is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh winds and varying sea conditions are observed across these regions, with seas ranging from 2-9 feet depending on location. Upper-level disturbances are also contributing to active weather patterns, particularly in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea. Source time: not specified.

Atlantic System's Development Chances Drop to 20%

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has downgraded the development chances of a low-pressure system in the Atlantic, now designated as Invest 98-L. As of the 8 p.m. update on September 17, 2026, the system is located a few hundred miles east of Bermuda. Earlier forecasts had given the system a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression or storm within the next two to seven days, but this has now been reduced to 20%. The system has lost some of its organization, with showers and thunderstorms becoming less concentrated. The Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through November 30, has so far produced five named storms but no hurricanes.

Atlantic Tropics Show Signs of Life After a Quiet Stretch

The Atlantic hurricane season remains unusually quiet, with no hurricanes forming so far in 2026, but forecasters are monitoring several areas that could support renewed tropical activity. A disorganized storm near Florida could move into the Gulf later this week and may develop into a tropical depression or named storm into the weekend, though the potential remains low. Farther ahead, an area stretching from north of the Bahamas to the eastern Gulf and northwestern Caribbean could become a focus for tropical development from late September into early October as wind shear may be lower. El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic activity through strong wind shear and dry air.