Tropical Disturbance Forms Over Northern Gulf, Expected to Impact Texas
Forecasters are closely monitoring a strong tropical wave that has developed over the northern Gulf of Mexico, south of the Florida Panhandle and Mississippi. Satellite imagery and wind data from Sunday indicate that the system has become more organized since Saturday, with deep convection forming near and just south of a broad circulation. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reports that atmospheric conditions in the northern Gulf, characterized by low wind shear, are conducive to further development over the next couple of days. The probability of this system developing into a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm before reaching the upper Texas or southwestern Louisiana coasts by Tuesday or Tuesday evening is currently at 50 percent. The low-pressure system is being steered westward by the flow along the southern periphery of a large heat dome covering much of the south-central and southeastern U.S. The heat dome's center recently shifted from Oklahoma to the middle Mississippi Valley. 
