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NOAA Predicts Strengthening El Niño to Bring Wetter Winter to Southern U.S.

NOAA Predicts Strengthening El Niño to Bring Wetter Winter to Southern U.S.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center has issued an update indicating that the current El Niño phenomenon continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely to persist through January-March 2027. Historically, this pattern predicts a wetter than normal winter with more frequent and stronger storms across much of the southern United States, including Texas. NOAA now assigns a 60% probability that El Niño will reach historically exceptional intensity during October-December or November-January. This strengthening is attributed to increased temperature anomalies, averaging approximately a half-degree Celsius in the last month. For areas like Houston, the primary concern is not hurricanes but rather the potential for more frequent rainstorms, prolonged wet periods, and an increased risk of winter and spring flooding. Conversely, stronger El Niño conditions can lead to warmer, drier conditions in parts of the northern United States.

Super El Niño Is Here: What It Could Mean for US Winter

Super El Niño Is Here: What It Could Mean for US Winter

Super El Niño is nearing official designation, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center expected to confirm that Pacific Ocean temperatures reached at least 2°C above average for three consecutive months. The powerful climate pattern has already influenced the 2026 hurricane season, helping fuel increased tropical activity in the Eastern Pacific while wind shear limited Atlantic development. This winter, it could strengthen the Pacific jet stream and steer more storms across the southern United States, from Southern California to Florida. However, forecasters say it is too early to know exactly how this winter will unfold.

El Niño Strengthens to 'Super El Niño' Status, Expected to Impact U.S. Winter Weather

El Niño Strengthens to 'Super El Niño' Status, Expected to Impact U.S. Winter Weather

El Niño, a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean, has intensified to 'Super El Niño' status. This designation occurs when sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Pacific exceed 2.0°C, a threshold that has been met with reported anomalies of 2.5°C. This year's event is considered exceptionally strong, with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) projecting an over 80% chance it could be the strongest since 1950. The phenomenon, named by Peruvian fishermen for its tendency to appear around Christmas, is expected to persist into early 2027. Its influence extends globally, affecting the jet stream and weather patterns across the United States, leading to questions about its impact on winter temperatures, snowfall, and storms. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, which includes El Niño and its cooler counterpart La Niña, is the largest driver of year-to-year weather variability worldwide.

Record-Early Polar Vortex Weakening May Chill U.S. by Thanksgiving

Record-Early Polar Vortex Weakening May Chill U.S. by Thanksgiving

A record-early weakening of the polar vortex, caused by a major sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event, could lead to colder weather across parts of the United States by Thanksgiving week, potentially lasting into early December. The polar vortex, a swirling cone of low pressure high in the stratosphere, was disrupted in early November 2026, marking the earliest such event since records began in 1958. This disruption, combined with a strong El Niño, may influence the jet stream and bring cooler air southward. However, conflicting factors, such as relatively warm Arctic conditions and low snow cover in North America, could limit the extent and duration of the cold spell. The situation remains uncertain, with meteorologists closely monitoring developments. (Source time: 2026-11-12 18:00 GMT)

Nor'easter brings snow, rain to Northeast. How much more is coming?

Nor'easter brings snow, rain to Northeast. How much more is coming?

A November nor'easter is bringing rain, gusty winds and the season's first accumulating snow to parts of the Northeast. Here's where more snow is expected.

El Niño May Bring Snow to Texas This Winter

El Niño May Bring Snow to Texas This Winter

The Farmers' Almanac and NOAA have released their winter forecasts for the 2026-27 season, highlighting the significant influence of a strong El Niño. This climate phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean, is expected to persist through early 2027 with an 83% chance of remaining strong or very strong. El Niño typically shifts the jet stream southward, increasing the likelihood of stormier weather across the southern United States, including Texas. This could result in wetter-than-normal conditions, with increased chances of rain and even snow in some areas. The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a potential for a white Christmas in regions such as the Pacific Northwest, upper Midwest, Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, and parts of the central Plains, including the Texas Panhandle. Central Texas, currently experiencing Level 1 to 2 drought conditions, may benefit from the increased precipitation, though heavy rainfall could also pose risks of flash floods and muds...

Will Thanksgiving be cold, dry or wet in Texas? Latest NOAA outlook

Will Thanksgiving be cold, dry or wet in Texas? Latest NOAA outlook

Texas could see a cooler, wetter Thanksgiving period, with NOAA favoring below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation across much of the state.

Strengthening El Niño to Bring Wetter Winter to Texas

Strengthening El Niño to Bring Wetter Winter to Texas

The NOAA Climate Prediction Center has confirmed that the current El Niño is strengthening, with a strong-to-very strong event expected to persist through January–March 2027. This weather pattern is likely to bring a wetter-than-normal winter to Texas and the southern United States. The subtropical jet stream is expected to become more active, steering Pacific storm systems across California, Arizona, New Mexico, Texas, and the Gulf Coast. The increased precipitation could lead to prolonged wet periods and heightened flood risks, particularly in areas like the San Jacinto River Basin.

A wintry forecast of snow and cold is about to take a turn

A wintry forecast of snow and cold is about to take a turn

The eastern United States faces several days of wintry weather, but the forecast says change is coming.

El Niño Expected to Bring Warmer Northern U.S. Winters and Wetter Southern Conditions

El Niño Expected to Bring Warmer Northern U.S. Winters and Wetter Southern Conditions

El Niño, the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, is anticipated to significantly influence winter weather across the United States. According to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook, this climate pattern typically brings milder weather to the northern U.S. states and wetter conditions to the southern U.S. and along the East Coast. El Niño forms when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are at least 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal for five consecutive three-month periods. The current El Niño is strengthening and is expected to remain strong to very strong through the January-March period. This phenomenon alters where ocean heat is released into the atmosphere, thereby influencing global circulation, temperatures, and precipitation patterns.

Record-Strength El Niño Expected to Bring Wetter, Colder Winter to Texas and Gulf Coast

Record-Strength El Niño Expected to Bring Wetter, Colder Winter to Texas and Gulf Coast

A record-strength El Niño is anticipated to bring a wetter and colder winter to Texas and the Gulf Coast. El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average temperatures in the central Pacific Ocean, which occurs every 2 to 7 years. What makes the current event unique is the unusually high ocean temperatures, with some areas of the eastern tropical Pacific more than 7°F warmer than average, making it potentially the strongest El Niño observed since records began in 1950. This warming shifts the jet stream, leading to a stronger and more active southern branch, which brings more storms and cold fronts across the southern United States, including Texas and the Gulf Coast.

Super El Niño Declaration Expected Within Hours

Super El Niño Declaration Expected Within Hours

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is expected to officially declare a Super El Niño event within the next 24 hours. This designation requires equatorial Pacific water temperatures to be at least 2°C (3.6°F) above average for three consecutive months. While not yet official, the climate pattern has already influenced weather globally, including an active Pacific hurricane season and a subdued Atlantic hurricane season. The Super El Niño is forecast to persist through winter 2026-27, potentially bringing significant weather changes across the U.S., particularly in the southern regions. Historical comparisons suggest this event may resemble the impactful 1997-98 Super El Niño, which brought severe storms and flooding to parts of the U.S. [Source: FOX Weather, Source time: not specified]