IMF Warns Iran Conflict Could Lead to Global Recession
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has issued a stark warning about the potential global economic impacts of the ongoing conflict involving Iran, the US, and Israel. The war has led to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital passage for about one-fifth of the world's crude oil supply. This disruption has caused a significant shortfall in global oil supply, with the IMF predicting an oil deficit even if the conflict were resolved immediately. The IMF has downgraded its global growth forecast to 3.1% for 2026, with inflation expected to rise to 4.4%. The organization cautions that a prolonged conflict could lead to a severe energy crisis and push global growth down to 2%, a level associated with recessionary conditions. 
