New Study Reveals Prolonged Heatwaves Expected Globally, Even with Emissions Cuts
A new study published in Nature Communications indicates that future heatwaves could last for nearly six months, even if significant reductions in planet-warming pollution are achieved. Researchers, led by Philipp Aglas-Leitner of Freie Universität Berlin, compared past heatwaves with climate-model projections, examining scenarios with both sharp emissions reductions and very high emissions. The findings suggest that even under sharp pollution reductions, some modeled heatwaves in regions like Europe, South America, northeast Siberia, the Pacific Northwest, North Africa, and the Middle East could persist for up to six months. The study highlights that at the Paris Agreement's upper limit of 3.6°F (2°C) warming, almost 20% of projected European heatwaves would exceed the intensity of a benchmark 2018 event. With current climate pledges leading to an approximate 4.7°F to 5°F (2.6°C to 2.8°C) warming, this figure rises to 27% to 37%.
