Arizona Fall Forecast: Above-Average Rain Expected
As Arizona transitions into fall, weather forecasts from the National Weather Service (NWS), AccuWeather, and The Old Farmer's Almanac present varying predictions for the season. The fall equinox begins on Tuesday, September 22, 2026. According to the NWS, Arizona has a 33% to 40% probability of experiencing above-average temperatures statewide, while AccuWeather predicts temperatures will be one to two degrees below historical averages in some areas, with southern cities like Sierra Vista and Nogales expected to remain at historical norms. Rainfall predictions also differ, with the NWS and AccuWeather forecasting above-average precipitation, particularly in September, when rainfall could reach 125% to 149% above normal. In contrast, The Old Farmer's Almanac anticipates a drier-than-usual fall for most of the state, except for northern-central areas like Sedona, which may see increased precipitation.