Super El Niño Raises Tornado Risks for Florida's Vulnerable Communities
A strong El Niño pattern is forming, with forecasters predicting a 90% chance of it becoming a 'super' El Niño, peaking between January and March 2027 (WUSF, 2026-09-14). Historically, strong El Niño events have been linked to increased severe weather activity during Florida's winter season, including tornadoes. Experts warn that the state's large population of residents in mobile and manufactured homes, which are particularly vulnerable to tornado damage, are at heightened risk. Florida has the highest number of manufactured homes in the U.S., with an estimated 600,000 of them built before 1994, when stricter wind-resistance standards were implemented. These older homes are especially susceptible to destruction during high-wind events, such as tornadoes.