Italy's Population Projected to Decline by Nearly 4 Million by 2050 Due to Low Birth Rate
Italy's national statistics office, Istat, predicts a significant population decline, with the country expected to lose nearly 4 million residents by 2050, falling from 58.9 million in early 2025 to 55 million. By 2080, the population is projected to further decrease to 45.8 million. This demographic shift is primarily driven by a persistently low birth rate, which saw only 355,000 births in 2025—the lowest since the end of World War II. Italian women currently have an average of 1.14 children, a rate lower than most European countries, with only Spain and Malta having lower figures. While immigration is acknowledged as a potential mitigating factor, Istat states it is insufficient to reverse the overall downward trend. Despite Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government prioritizing policies to boost the birth rate and appointing a 'minister for birth rates,' the decline has continued. 
