NOAA Predicts Below-Normal 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season Due to Strengthening El Niño
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has updated its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, predicting a below-normal level of activity. This forecast is largely attributed to the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, disrupting the formation and intensification of tropical systems. As of early August, only two named storms have formed, both in the Gulf of Mexico. NOAA's updated projections for the entire season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, include 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and up to 2 major hurricanes. Historically, the Atlantic hurricane season averages 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Despite the reduced forecast, NOAA emphasizes the importance of preparedness, as even a single storm can have significant impacts. 
