Rapidly Developing El Niño Raises Likelihood of Record-Warm 2026
As of mid-July 2026, the world is experiencing one of the fastest-developing El Niño events in recorded history, with significant implications for global temperatures and weather patterns (Carbon Brief, 2026-07-24). The El Niño phenomenon, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, has already reached the threshold for a 'strong' event, with the Niño3.4 index hitting 1.6°C in June. This development has increased the likelihood of 2026 becoming the warmest year on record to 35%, up from 19% in April. The first half of 2026 has already been the third-warmest on record, with global temperatures averaging 1.4°C above pre-industrial levels. Arctic sea ice has also spent 39 days at or below record daily lows, following the joint-lowest winter maximum in the satellite era.