NOAA Forecasts Strong El Niño for Pacific Northwest, Uncertain Rain and Snow Impacts
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño event this fall and winter, with a 69% chance of a historic El Niño from October to December. El Niño is a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. While moderate El Niños typically bring above-average temperatures, less rain, and reduced snowpack to the Pacific Northwest, the impacts of a very strong El Niño on rain, mountain snowpack, and drought in the region are less clear. Daniel Hartsock, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Portland, notes that during stronger El Niño years, there's about a 50-50 chance of near-normal conditions for first snowfall. Jacob Genuise, an engagement climatologist with the Washington State Climate Office, emphasizes that El Niño events typically explain only about 25% of winter conditions, with other factors like local sea surface temperatures also playing a significant role. 
