Past Emissions from Top Polluters to Drive Decades of Global Warming, Study Finds
A new University of Washington study, published in PLOS Climate, reveals that past emissions from the top 178 oil, gas, coal, and cement producers, collectively known as carbon majors, will continue to warm the planet for decades to come. Researchers simulated global climate through 2500 using the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR) model, analyzing scenarios with varying emission levels. The study concludes that even if greenhouse gas emissions were to cease immediately, the Earth would remain approximately 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial levels due to the long-term persistence of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Dargan Frierson, a UW associate professor of atmospheric and climate science, emphasized that a stable future necessitates the complete cessation of fossil fuel burning. The findings highlight that the warming caused by past emissions from these carbon majors is calculable and relatively independent of future emission pathways, meaning their historical contributions will cont...