Population Momentum to Drive 79% of Global Growth Through 2054, UN DESA Reports
The United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA) analysis indicates that population momentum is projected to account for approximately 79 percent of total global population growth through 2054, adding roughly 1.4 billion people. Population momentum refers to the phenomenon where a population continues to grow for one or more generations even after its fertility rate falls to or below replacement level. This growth is primarily driven by the existing size and age distribution of the population, particularly large cohorts of young people entering their reproductive years. For instance, China's population continued to grow for about three decades after its fertility rate dropped below replacement level in the early 1990s, only beginning to shrink around 2021-2022. Similarly, India's population continues to grow despite its fertility rate reaching replacement level, sustained by a large number of women in their reproductive years from previous higher fertility rates. Sub-Saharan African c...
