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New Research Suggests Some El Niño Events Predictable Up to a Year in Advance, Especially During La Niña Conditions

New Research Suggests Some El Niño Events Predictable Up to a Year in Advance, Especially During La Niña Conditions

A new study indicates that certain El Niño events may be accurately predicted up to 12 months in advance, significantly extending the current reliable forecast window. This research, which analyzed 7,500 forecasts from nine different climate models, found that predictions initiated during La Niña conditions were consistently more reliable for forecasting events a year later. Conversely, forecasts made during neutral conditions were often inaccurate. This discovery challenges the long-held understanding of forecast limitations, particularly the 'Bermuda triangle' period between March and May, when predictions are typically unreliable due to atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The study suggests that La Niña conditions have a stabilizing influence on the climate system, making it less susceptible to the 'butterfly effect' and allowing for more accurate long-range predictions. This could provide valuable lead time for communities and governments to prepare for the extreme weather events often associated with ...

La Niña Conditions Enhance Accuracy of Long-Range El Niño Forecasts, Study Finds

La Niña Conditions Enhance Accuracy of Long-Range El Niño Forecasts, Study Finds

New research indicates that El Niño forecasts initiated during La Niña conditions are significantly more accurate up to a year in advance. The study, which analyzed 7,500 forecasts from nine different models, found a consistent pattern: predictions made when the Pacific was in a La Niña phase were most successful in foretelling future El Niño events. Conversely, forecasts made during neutral conditions were often incorrect. This discovery suggests that La Niña has a stabilizing influence on climate models, making their long-range predictions more reliable. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that influences global weather patterns. While El Niño typically brings warmer global temperatures and altered weather, La Niña is characterized by cooler surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The ability to predict El Niño events earlier could provide crucial lead time for communities to prepare f...

El Niño Episodes Linked to Global Shifts in Temperature-Related Mortality, Study Finds

El Niño Episodes Linked to Global Shifts in Temperature-Related Mortality, Study Finds

A new study by the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), published in Nature Medicine, reveals that very strong El Niño episodes are associated with significant shifts in global temperature-related mortality. The research, which analyzed climate and mortality data from 1980 to 2023 across 1,667 regions in 125 countries, estimates that these strong El Niño events lead to approximately 107,035 additional heat-related deaths and 112,681 fewer cold-related deaths annually worldwide compared to neutral conditions. While these changes largely offset each other globally, the impact is not evenly distributed. Tropical regions, particularly those with low or medium Human Development Index (HDI), experience the largest increases in heat-related mortality. For instance, South America, Small Island Developing States, sub-Saharan Africa, and South and Southeast Asia show the highest increases in heat-related deaths. The study highlights that countries with fewer resources are disproportionately affected, wi...

World Meteorological Organization Reports 2026 Among Warmest Years, Citing Over 30,000 European Heatwave Deaths

World Meteorological Organization Reports 2026 Among Warmest Years, Citing Over 30,000 European Heatwave Deaths

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has released a report indicating that 2026 is on track to be one of the four warmest years in recorded history. Global temperatures averaged 1.47 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels from January to September 2026. This figure is expected to rise further as a very strong El Niño event intensifies, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record by December and fueling extreme weather into 2027. The WMO report, released at the opening of the UN climate conference COP31 in Antalya, Türkiye, highlights that Earth's energy imbalance has reached its highest level since monitoring began, with greenhouse gases trapping unprecedented amounts of heat. Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations reached 426.8 parts per million in 2025, 53 percent above pre-industrial levels. Oceans, which absorb approximately 90 percent of excess heat, are also heading towards their tenth consecutive year of record warmth. Preliminary estimates attribute over 30,000 excess deaths ...

Beef Industry-Funded Curriculum on Cattle's Climate Impact Withdrawn After Rancher Backlash

Beef Industry-Funded Curriculum on Cattle's Climate Impact Withdrawn After Rancher Backlash

A science curriculum designed to educate high school students on the climate impact of cattle, specifically methane emissions, was removed by the American Farm Bureau Foundation for Agriculture (AFBFA) following protests from ranchers. The lesson, titled 'Methane & Cattle: A Climate Connection,' was intended for approximately 1.2 million students across over 100 school districts nationwide. Ranchers, including prominent South Dakota farmer Brett Kenzy, criticized the lesson, arguing that cows do not harm the environment. Jim Mundorf, a rancher and podcaster, further amplified the backlash through his blog, leading to widespread discontent within the farming community. Rick Henningfeld, AFBFA education director, confirmed the lesson's removal at the beef industry's annual convention, CattleCon, stating that the foundation heard the feedback and is editing the content with the hope of reintroducing it. A subsequent lesson on cattle digestion, published in July, omits any mention of methane or climate change....

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Accelerates Amid Climate Shifts

Arctic Sea Ice Decline Accelerates Amid Climate Shifts

Recent research highlights significant changes in the Arctic climate system, with sea ice extent (SIE) experiencing a marked decline over the past decades. According to the study published in Geoscientific Model Development (2026), annual mean SIE has decreased at a rate of -0.52 million km² per decade from 1979 to 2024. Seasonal variations show faster declines during summer months, with September mean SIE dropping by -0.78 million km² per decade. The study also notes a period of accelerated decline between 1992 and 2006, followed by a slower rate of reduction. These findings are based on comprehensive model evaluations using MOSAiC observations, which provide critical insights into the energy exchanges between the atmosphere, sea ice, and ocean. The Arctic's transition to a new climatic state underscores the urgency of understanding and addressing the impacts of global warming on polar regions.

Exceptional Global Heat Persists Amid Strong El Niño

Exceptional Global Heat Persists Amid Strong El Niño

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has reported that global temperatures in 2026 are on track to be among the highest ever recorded, with the January to September average approximately 1.47°C above pre-industrial levels. This trend is expected to continue into 2027, driven by a historically strong El Niño event that began intensifying in August. The report highlights that the past 12 years have been the warmest on record, with the last four years topping the list. Oceans, absorbing 90% of excess heat, are experiencing record warmth, while glaciers continue to retreat at alarming rates. Sea levels and sea-surface temperatures have also reached unprecedented highs, underscoring the escalating impacts of climate change. The findings come ahead of COP31 talks in Türkiye, emphasizing the urgent need for global climate action.

El Niño is coming for your 5-day weather forecast

El Niño is coming for your 5-day weather forecast

A strong El Niño has already upended hurricane season and sent planetary waves to batter California. Soon its effects could steer daily U.S. weather.

Researchers Enhance El Niño and La Niña Forecasting Reliability

Researchers Enhance El Niño and La Niña Forecasting Reliability

Researchers from CSIRO and the University of Melbourne have significantly improved the reliability of long-range climate forecasts for El Niño and La Niña events. Their findings indicate that predictions initiated during La Niña conditions maintain reliability for up to 12 months, whereas forecasts starting from neutral conditions are less accurate. This research, published on November 7, 2026, involved evaluating over 7,500 historical climate forecasts from models developed in nine different countries. The study compared the accuracy of these predictions based on the ocean conditions present at the start of each forecast. The scientists emphasized that the skill of seasonal outlooks heavily depends on the Pacific Ocean's initial state, suggesting that accounting for whether La Niña or neutral conditions are present at the forecast's launch can make these outlooks more useful. This advancement could provide communities with earlier warnings for extreme weather events such as droughts and floods.

UN Report Forecasts 2026 Among Hottest Years, Citing El Niño and Climate Change Impacts

UN Report Forecasts 2026 Among Hottest Years, Citing El Niño and Climate Change Impacts

A new U.N. climate report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), released on the first day of COP31, indicates that 2026 is projected to be among the four hottest years on record. This elevated temperature trend is expected to persist into early 2027, largely due to an unusually powerful El Niño phenomenon. The report states that the global average surface temperature from January to September was approximately 2.65°F (1.47°C) above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. The past 12 years have consistently ranked among the hottest, with 2023 through 2026 occupying the top four positions. The current El Niño, intensifying since August, is anticipated to be the strongest on record by December, acting as a 'risk multiplier' for health and exacerbating human-caused climate change. The World Health Organization (WHO) has, for the first time, classified the anticipated health impacts of extreme heat and the record-breaking El Niño as a health emergency.

NASA Warns of Escalating Amazon Wildfires Driven by El Niño, Projecting Worsening Conditions

NASA Warns of Escalating Amazon Wildfires Driven by El Niño, Projecting Worsening Conditions

Satellite observations from NASA's Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED), and NASA Worldview indicate a significant increase in fires and smoke emissions across the central and eastern Amazon since September 2026. This surge extends from the forests around Manaus and Santarém eastward towards the mouth of the Amazon River. Douglas Morton, an Earth system scientist at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, describes this as a 'cascade' of tropical wildfires, intensified by the current El Niño climate pattern. The drought conditions, exacerbated by El Niño, have made vast areas of the rainforest highly vulnerable to fire. Manaus, the capital of Brazil's Amazonas state, experienced dangerously polluted air on October 12, 2026, with fine particulate matter exceeding 135 micrograms per cubic meter, leading to school closures and suspension of public events. Scientists anticipate the wildfire cascade to move northward in November and December, affecting Rorai...

NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño Conditions for Early 2027, Raising Polycrisis Concerns

NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño Conditions for Early 2027, Raising Polycrisis Concerns

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has projected an over 83% probability of strong to very strong El Niño conditions occurring between January and March 2027. This natural climate phenomenon is causing concern among scientists due to an unprecedented rate of surface warming. Historically, major El Niño events, such as those in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16, have led to extreme flooding in some regions and severe drought in others, causing widespread disruption to ecosystems and economies. The current El Niño is being described as a 'super' or 'Godzilla' event, which is expected to alter global weather patterns, potentially bringing more extreme heat, drought, and flooding. These climate-driven events are occurring more frequently and are leading to cascading, interrelated effects, creating what experts refer to as 'polycrisis' scenarios where multiple connected crises happen simultaneously.