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When will winter weather arrive? November forecast has unusual answer

When will winter weather arrive? November forecast has unusual answer

Widespread chilly weather still seems a long way away despite what the calendar says. One of the warmest Novembers on record is expected in the U.S.
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US Drought Monitor Reports Persistent Drought Across South-Central US and Other Regions

US Drought Monitor Reports Persistent Drought Across South-Central US and Other Regions

The latest US Drought Monitor report indicates that drought conditions remain a significant concern across various parts of the United States, despite recent localized flooding. Widespread extreme to exceptional drought is affecting the south-central United States. Additionally, parts of the Carolinas, the upper Great Lakes, and the Northeast are experiencing severe to extreme drought. While recent heavy rains have mitigated drought in some areas of the Southwest, severe to extreme drought conditions persist in many parts of the Pacific Northwest and the northern and central Rockies. The report highlights that much of the country has been abnormally dry over the last 90 days, with regions from south Texas to the Ozarks and Tennessee Valley, as well as the West Coast north of central California, receiving less than half of their normal precipitation. Lake Powell has seen a significant water level increase of over 13 feet in the last two weeks due to river flooding, though its current level remains below tha...
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National Weather Service Predicts Warmer Winter for Northern Minnesota Due to Strong El Niño

National Weather Service Predicts Warmer Winter for Northern Minnesota Due to Strong El Niño

The National Weather Service (NWS) is forecasting a higher probability of above-normal temperatures and a slight chance of below-normal precipitation for northern Minnesota, including the Superior National Forest, this winter. This outlook is primarily influenced by a very strong El Niño event developing in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, impacts the jet stream and, consequently, weather patterns across North America. Ketzel Levens, a meteorologist with the NWS in Duluth, stated that the three-month outlook from December to February indicates a 50% to 60% chance of above-normal temperatures for Minnesota’s Arrowhead region. While the term 'Super El Niño' has been used by some media, Levens clarified that the NWS categorizes such events as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, and this particular El Niño is expected to be one of the strongest in recent decades, presenting some unprecedented forecasting...
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Polar Vortex Disrupted Early, El Niño Expected to Drive Milder U.S. Winter

Polar Vortex Disrupted Early, El Niño Expected to Drive Milder U.S. Winter

The Polar Vortex has experienced its earliest disruption on record for a calendar year, according to analysis from the FOX Forecast Center. This disruption involves a weakening, displacement, or splitting of the strong winds circling the North Pole, which can alter atmospheric circulation and potentially lead to Arctic air spilling southward. However, this early disruption does not immediately translate to colder temperatures across North America. Forecast models indicate that any potential cold-weather impacts would likely take several weeks to develop, with late November or December being the earliest. Currently, the coldest air is pooling over Eastern Europe and Siberia, while North America is experiencing much warmer-than-average conditions. This pattern is largely influenced by a rapidly strengthening El Niño climate pattern, with a 'Super El Niño' expected to be declared later this year.
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NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño to Influence U.S. Winter Weather Patterns

NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño to Influence U.S. Winter Weather Patterns

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center estimates a greater than 83% chance of a "strong" to "very strong" El Niño through January-March 2027. This El Niño event could rank among the largest in historical records dating back to 1950. El Niño, the "warm" phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), is characterized by warmer-than-normal ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean due to weakened trade winds. This climate pattern typically lasts nine to twelve months and occurs every two to seven years. While El Niño influences weather patterns globally, its specific impact on U.S. regions varies and is not always clear. For instance, Denver Water's analysis of historical strong El Niño years showed inconsistent precipitation patterns in Colorado, with some mountain counties appearing drier and Denver County tending to be wetter. NOAA forecasts generally indicate warmer conditions in the Northern U.S., drier conditions in parts of the Midwest and South, ...
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Super El Niño Nears Record Strength, Influencing U.S. Weather Patterns with Flooding and Drought Relief

Super El Niño Nears Record Strength, Influencing U.S. Weather Patterns with Flooding and Drought Relief

A 'Super El Niño' event is nearing record strength, significantly impacting weather patterns across the United States. Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean were 2.5 degrees Celsius above average in late October. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicates a high probability for this El Niño to exceed the strength of previous events since 1950, potentially becoming the strongest in 1,000 years based on historical evidence. This powerful El Niño has already influenced the Atlantic hurricane season, limiting it to only one hurricane, the fewest on record since 1925. Its effects are now settling into typical winter patterns across the U.S., with recent events including major flash floods in the Desert Southwest, up to two feet of rain in the Florida Peninsula, and significant overnight flash floods in the mountains of northern Georgia and southeastern Tennessee. Conversely, many cities in the central U.S. have experienced a record warm and dry fall.
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Strong El Niño Expected to Bring Increased Flood Risk and Severe Weather to Florida

Strong El Niño Expected to Bring Increased Flood Risk and Severe Weather to Florida

Brevard County, Florida, recently experienced severe flash flooding that resulted in two fatalities and significant damage to homes and infrastructure. This event is believed to be an early indicator of what could be a challenging fall and winter for Florida due to a strengthening El Niño. According to Emily Powell, Florida State Climatologist at Florida State University, this El Niño is projected to become 'very strong,' potentially surpassing all previous El Niños on record since 1950 in terms of strength. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) describes El Niño as a significant climate driver characterized by warmer water temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. This phenomenon influences global weather patterns, including shifting the Pacific jet stream, which is expected to bring more winter storms and heavier rainfall to California and the southern United States, including Florida.
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Forecast Predicts White Christmas Odds Across the U.S.

Forecast Predicts White Christmas Odds Across the U.S.

The Weather Channel has released its early forecast for the likelihood of a white Christmas in 2026, defining it as having at least one inch of snow on the ground on December 25. Historical data shows that many parts of the U.S. have less than a 50% chance of meeting this criterion. This year, a strong El Niño climate pattern is expected to influence December temperatures, potentially reducing snowfall in regions like the Great Lakes and Northeast. However, areas such as the southern Rockies, including parts of Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, and Utah, may see increased chances of snow. The forecast is based on historical data from six strong El Niño events since 1950.
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New Study Reveals Self-Reinforcing Dynamics Intensifying Extreme Heatwaves in U.S. and Globally

New Study Reveals Self-Reinforcing Dynamics Intensifying Extreme Heatwaves in U.S. and Globally

A new study published in Science Advances, led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), has identified a previously misunderstood self-reinforcing interaction that makes extreme heatwaves 10 percent hotter. This interaction involves temperature, soil moisture, and atmospheric pressure. Researchers used machine learning and statistical analysis to discover that in mid-latitude regions, including parts of North America, these three factors begin to interact and drive each other further once a certain temperature threshold is reached. This phenomenon contributes to 'mega heatwaves' that have significantly surpassed previous temperature records. For instance, the 2021 summer heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest saw temperatures reach 4.6°C above prior records. The study explains that high-pressure systems increase solar radiation, while rising temperatures dry out soils, reducing evaporative cooling. These two-way relatio...
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Super El Niño Forecast to Bring Mild, Wet Winter to Washington D.C. with Elevated Blizzard Risk

Super El Niño Forecast to Bring Mild, Wet Winter to Washington D.C. with Elevated Blizzard Risk

Washington D.C. is anticipating a mild and wet winter for 2026-27, driven by a historically strong 'Super El Niño' event in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This phenomenon is expected to strengthen the subtropical jet stream, leading to an active storm track across the southern U.S. and up the East Coast. Temperatures are projected to be 2 to 4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, potentially making it one of D.C.'s top-10 warmest winters on record. Precipitation is also expected to be above average, with forecasts of 10 to 13 inches of liquid precipitation, compared to the winter average of 8.89 inches. Despite the overall mild outlook, the active storm track increases the risk of blizzards, similar to past strong El Niño winters like 1982-83 and 2015-16, which saw significant snow events. Overall snowfall is predicted to be below normal, ranging from 6 to 12 inches, but with fewer, potentially more intense, snow events.
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El Niño Strengthens, Expected to Bring Record Rainfall and Severe Weather Risks to U.S.

El Niño Strengthens, Expected to Bring Record Rainfall and Severe Weather Risks to U.S.

The current El Niño event is intensifying and is projected to become a 'very strong' or 'super' El Niño, potentially surpassing all recorded events since 1950. This climate pattern, characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific, significantly influences global weather. According to Emily Powell, Florida State Climatologist at Florida State University, this El Niño is expected to reach its peak strength within the next month or so. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates an over 83% chance of it becoming a 'strong-to-very-strong' El Niño. Its effects are already being observed, with Brevard County, Florida, experiencing a 'once-in-1,000-year flood' that resulted in two deaths and significant damage to homes. This event saw over 20 inches of rain in less than 24 hours in some areas. The strengthening El Niño is anticipated to shift the Pacific jet stream southward, leading to increased rainfall and potential severe weather across the southe...
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Moderate Drought Conditions Expand to Cover Nearly a Third of Vermont

Moderate Drought Conditions Expand to Cover Nearly a Third of Vermont

Moderate drought conditions have significantly expanded across Vermont, now affecting nearly a third of the state. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report, 32% of Vermont is experiencing moderate drought, a substantial increase from 14% just one week prior. This expansion follows a period of below-normal rainfall throughout much of the region. Over the past 90 days, parts of Vermont have received only 50% to 75% of their typical rainfall amounts, although some northern areas have experienced closer to normal precipitation levels. Neighboring New Hampshire has also seen an increase in moderate drought, growing from 33% to 40% over the same one-week period. Drought conditions in Vermont have fluctuated over the past year, with this recent expansion occurring after a period of improvement during the summer months.