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New Research Suggests Some El Niño Events Predictable Up to a Year in Advance, Especially During La Niña Conditions

New Research Suggests Some El Niño Events Predictable Up to a Year in Advance, Especially During La Niña Conditions

A new study indicates that certain El Niño events may be accurately predicted up to 12 months in advance, significantly extending the current reliable forecast window. This research, which analyzed 7,500 forecasts from nine different climate models, found that predictions initiated during La Niña conditions were consistently more reliable for forecasting events a year later. Conversely, forecasts made during neutral conditions were often inaccurate. This discovery challenges the long-held understanding of forecast limitations, particularly the 'Bermuda triangle' period between March and May, when predictions are typically unreliable due to atmospheric and oceanic conditions. The study suggests that La Niña conditions have a stabilizing influence on the climate system, making it less susceptible to the 'butterfly effect' and allowing for more accurate long-range predictions. This could provide valuable lead time for communities and governments to prepare for the extreme weather events often associated with ...
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Northeast on alert for freezing cold, first major snow storm

Northeast on alert for freezing cold, first major snow storm

A nor'easter could potentially bring the season's first snowfall to millions in the northeastern U.S., meteorologists predict.
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La Niña Conditions Enhance Accuracy of Long-Range El Niño Forecasts, Study Finds

La Niña Conditions Enhance Accuracy of Long-Range El Niño Forecasts, Study Finds

New research indicates that El Niño forecasts initiated during La Niña conditions are significantly more accurate up to a year in advance. The study, which analyzed 7,500 forecasts from nine different models, found a consistent pattern: predictions made when the Pacific was in a La Niña phase were most successful in foretelling future El Niño events. Conversely, forecasts made during neutral conditions were often incorrect. This discovery suggests that La Niña has a stabilizing influence on climate models, making their long-range predictions more reliable. El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate phenomenon in the tropical Pacific that influences global weather patterns. While El Niño typically brings warmer global temperatures and altered weather, La Niña is characterized by cooler surface waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. The ability to predict El Niño events earlier could provide crucial lead time for communities to prepare f...
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Winter weather in the forecast. How cold and how much snow?

Winter weather in the forecast. How cold and how much snow?

While not a blockbuster storm, an upcoming nor'easter will bring the season's first snowflakes to portions of the eastern U.S., forecasters said.
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Super El Nino Fuels Record Typhoon Activity in Western Pacific, Chief Forecaster Reports

Super El Nino Fuels Record Typhoon Activity in Western Pacific, Chief Forecaster Reports

The Western Pacific and South China Sea have experienced a record 32 typhoons this year, the highest annual total since the start of the 21st century. This surge in typhoon activity is attributed to the influence of a developing Super El Nino event, according to Zhao Junhu, chief forecaster at China's National Climate Center. The region typically averages 24.3 typhoons annually. Only 2004 and 2013 previously saw more than 30 typhoons, with 2013 holding the prior record of 31. The National Climate Center's monitoring indicates that the Super El Nino, which emerged in September, became the strongest on record by October. This phenomenon has caused the subtropical high pressure to remain farther north, averaging about two degrees of latitude farther north from August to October, a condition favorable for typhoon formation. From July to October this year, 23 typhoons formed, with numbers and intensity significantly above average.
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Strong El Niño Expected to Significantly Impact U.S. Crop Yields in 2027

Strong El Niño Expected to Significantly Impact U.S. Crop Yields in 2027

A very strong El Niño event is currently underway, with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center indicating an over 83% chance of it persisting through March 2027 and exceeding the intensity of any El Niño since 1950. This climate pattern is expected to bring above-normal rainfall to the southern Plains and milder conditions to the north during the winter of 2026-2027. Historically, strong El Niño winters have led to varied impacts on U.S. crop yields in the subsequent year. Winter wheat in the Plains states, including South Dakota, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Colorado, has averaged significantly above normal yields (12-18% higher). Cotton in Texas has also seen an average increase of about 10%. Conversely, corn yields in the Southeast have tended to be lower, with Atlantic states experiencing 9-11% below-normal yields. Soybean impacts are mixed, with some Midwestern states seeing gains while others in the South experience slight declines. The El Niño pattern typically dissipates by the following summer...
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NASA Reports 2026 Ozone Hole Reaches Seventh Largest Extent in 48 Years

NASA Reports 2026 Ozone Hole Reaches Seventh Largest Extent in 48 Years

The Antarctic ozone hole reached its annual maximum extent on September 18, 2026, marking it as the seventh largest in 48 years of monitoring. Scientists define the ozone hole as the area where ozone concentrations fall below 220 Dobson Units. While the 2026 hole was extensive in area, it was not as deep as some other large holes on record. This significant size is attributed to an unusually strong Antarctic polar vortex, which created optimal conditions for ozone depletion. The stratospheric ozone layer is crucial for protecting life on Earth by absorbing harmful ultraviolet light, which can damage DNA and cause skin cancer. The phenomenon of the ozone hole, first observed dramatically in 1985, is primarily caused by chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and human-produced bromine compounds, which release reactive chlorine atoms that destroy ozone in the stratosphere.
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GOES Satellites Revolutionize Weather Monitoring

GOES Satellites Revolutionize Weather Monitoring

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) series, operated by NOAA in collaboration with NASA, has been a cornerstone of weather monitoring since its first launch in 1975. The latest GOES-R series, including satellites GOES-16 through GOES-19, launched between 2016 and 2024, provides advanced capabilities such as high-resolution imaging and lightning mapping. Positioned in geostationary orbit at an altitude of 35,786 km, these satellites cover North and South America, as well as large portions of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Their data is critical for weather forecasting, hurricane tracking, wildfire detection, and space weather monitoring.
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El Niño Expected to Bring Warmer Winter to New York, NOAA Predicts

El Niño Expected to Bring Warmer Winter to New York, NOAA Predicts

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its winter outlook for December 2026 through February 2027, highlighting the significant influence of a strong El Niño on U.S. weather patterns. According to NOAA, New York and much of the northern United States are likely to experience above-average temperatures this winter. The probability of warmer-than-normal conditions in New York is estimated at 50% to 60%. Precipitation forecasts indicate equal chances of above- or below-normal levels in western and central New York, while eastern parts of the state, including New York City, have a 33% to 50% chance of above-normal precipitation. NOAA notes that while wetter conditions are expected in some areas, this does not necessarily translate to increased snowfall.
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NOAA's Streamlined GeoXO Program Faces Scrutiny Over Reduced Satellite Count and Potential Weather Coverage Gaps

NOAA's Streamlined GeoXO Program Faces Scrutiny Over Reduced Satellite Count and Potential Weather Coverage Gaps

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has streamlined its Geostationary Extended Observations (GeoXO) program, reducing the planned satellite constellation from six to four. This revision is projected to cut the lifecycle cost by $6.6 billion, from an initial $19.6 billion to $13 billion. However, this cost reduction comes with significant changes, including the removal of three planned instruments designed for lightning detection, coastal water monitoring, and atmospheric composition measurements. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) has raised concerns regarding the revised cost estimate's independent validation and the adequacy of contingency plans for potential satellite failures or data gaps. Specifically, a timing mismatch could leave NOAA without an operational spare satellite for several months around 2032, the year of the first scheduled GeoXO launch. While the revised design retains major imaging and atmospheric-sounding capabilities, the removed instruments and incompl...
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New AI Tool Significantly Improves Weeks 3-4 Weather Forecasts, Bridging 'Predictability Desert'

New AI Tool Significantly Improves Weeks 3-4 Weather Forecasts, Bridging 'Predictability Desert'

A new machine learning method has substantially improved weather forecasts for the three-to-four-week period, a timeframe previously considered a 'predictability desert' by meteorologists. Published in Nature, this research indicates that the AI tool, developed by a team including researchers from Microsoft, MIT, and other institutions, doubles the skill of a leading AI forecasting system and enhances Europe's flagship physics-based model across most of the globe. The method, called probabilistic bias correction, acts as an add-on to existing models by learning from approximately 20 years of past forecast errors and blending them with recent observations. While the gains are modest in absolute terms, they are significant for decisions that are costly to reverse, such as those made by farmers, utility companies, and emergency managers. The tool does not require a supercomputer and its code is publicly available.
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NOAA Predicts Wetter Winter for Southern and Eastern U.S. Due to Strengthening El Niño

NOAA Predicts Wetter Winter for Southern and Eastern U.S. Due to Strengthening El Niño

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts a shift in the jet stream southward and eastward across the United States during the winter of 2026-2027. This atmospheric change is a direct consequence of the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which is expected to reach very strong intensity by the end of 2026. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) at Columbia University corroborate this, with models projecting sea surface temperature anomalies significantly above normal in the tropical Pacific. NOAA's prediction indicates an increased likelihood of wetter weather and storms for the southern region, extending from California to Florida, as well as along the East Coast. Furthermore, NOAA warns that heavy rainfall in areas previously affected by drought could elevate the risk of flash floods and landslides, as dry soil may struggle to absorb large volumes of water quickly. The El Niño event is anticipated to pers...