U.S. Labor Market Faces Potential Jobless Expansion Amid Demographic Shifts
The U.S. labor market is undergoing significant changes due to demographic shifts and policy decisions, potentially leading to a jobless expansion. President Trump's immigration policies and the retirement of baby boomers are contributing to a shrinking labor pool. According to a report by Dallas Fed economists, the breakeven rate of employment growth has turned slightly negative, meaning that the labor market can maintain steady unemployment rates even with stagnant or declining payrolls. Oxford Economics estimates that the breakeven rate will fall to zero next year and turn negative by 2028, influenced by continued restrictive immigration policies and the ongoing retirement wave. 
