Lowy Institute Reports Australia Expands Pacific Aid Lead as China Shifts Strategy
The Lowy Institute's 2026 Pacific Aid Map reveals that Australia has surpassed China as the leading source of lending and infrastructure investment in the Pacific region. The report highlights a strategic shift by China from large-scale infrastructure loans to smaller, high-frequency grants and training programs. The Pacific Aid Map, which tracks over 50,000 projects worth $60 billion in official development finance (ODF) from 2008 to 2024, shows that total ODF to the region stabilized at $4.1 billion in 2024, marking a 10% increase after three years of decline. Australia accounted for 37% of all development finance to the region in 2024, disbursing $1.5 billion, and has signed $2.4 billion in new loan agreements since 2021. Meanwhile, Chinese grant commitments reached a record high in 2024, although Chinese lending has not recovered to pre-pandemic levels.